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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Up 17%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$912.8

Combined PnL

-$25.67

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 6 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$132.44

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$80.08

Up1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$105.75

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.2¢	$521.37	$503.5	+$9.32	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$247.89	$503.5	+$253.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.2¢	$252.28	—	-$244.61
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$289.16	$276.87	-$12.3	51% 1602-1552 (3154)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.3¢	$125.34	$276.87	+$151.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$163.82	—	-$163.82
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 31.9¢	$41.9	$63.89	+$36.5	37% 757-1285 (2042)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 5.4¢	$1.2	$22.17	+$20.97	47% 1270-1451 (2721)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 51.8¢	$7.35	$14.2	+$6.85	47% 753-850 (1603)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 58¢	$9.96	$17.18	+$7.22	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 43¢	$6.45	$15	+$8.55	50% 1015-1025 (2040)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 66.8¢	$105.75	—	-$105.75	60% 2827-1912 (4739)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$521.37

Value

$503.5

PnL

+$9.32

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Both legs:

Down$247.8949.2¢+$253.93

Up$252.2851.2¢-$244.61

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$289.16

Value

$276.87

PnL

-$12.3

Record

51%

1602-1552 (3154)

Both legs:

Down$125.3445.3¢+$151.52

Up$163.8251.4¢-$163.82

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$41.9

Value

$63.89

PnL

+$36.5

Record

37%

757-1285 (2042)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

$22.17

PnL

+$20.97

Record

47%

1270-1451 (2721)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$7.35

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$6.85

Record

47%

753-850 (1603)

Invested

$9.96

Value

$17.18

PnL

+$7.22

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$15

PnL

+$8.55

Record

50%

1015-1025 (2040)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$105.75

Value

—

PnL

-$105.75

Record

60%

2827-1912 (4739)

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 6 top traders (17%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfab6e68b...77e42e

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794464100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Down — $63.89

dvasdkasodk

Down — $22.17

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $14.2

aaa221

Down — $17.18

uninformedfloww

Down — $15

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

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