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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

Total Value

$142.03

Combined PnL

-$527.45

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares664

Combined PnL-$547.37

Down4 traders

Total Value$142.03

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$19.92

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 48.5¢	$515.47	—	-$488.52	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 38.9¢	$59.26	$78.66	+$19.4	37% 737-1242 (1979)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 76.7¢	$45.14	$45	-$0.14	60% 2757-1855 (4612)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$37.68	—	-$37.68	50% 977-986 (1963)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 34.4¢	$5.25	—	-$5.25	47% 1112-1258 (2370)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.25	$5	+$2.75	48% 1088-1178 (2266)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$20.52	$13.37	-$2.09	60% 2054-1370 (3424)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 21.5¢	$2.07	—	-$2.07	46% 1225-1418 (2643)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 26.7¢	$13.85	—	-$13.85	47% 738-817 (1555)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$515.47

Value

—

PnL

-$488.52

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$59.26

Value

$78.66

PnL

+$19.4

Record

37%

737-1242 (1979)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$45.14

Value

$45

PnL

-$0.14

Record

60%

2757-1855 (4612)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$37.68

Value

—

PnL

-$37.68

Record

50%

977-986 (1963)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

—

PnL

-$5.25

Record

47%

1112-1258 (2370)

Invested

$2.25

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

48%

1088-1178 (2266)

Invested

$20.52

Value

$13.37

PnL

-$2.09

Record

60%

2054-1370 (3424)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

—

PnL

-$2.07

Record

46%

1225-1418 (2643)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$13.85

Value

—

PnL

-$13.85

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2e583eb1...ff3e16

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794456900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $78.66

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $45

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

ohioism

Down — $5

aaa221

Down — $13.37

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

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