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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Down 91%

Total Value

$8.77

Combined PnL

-$103.28

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 11 top traders (91%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares251

Combined PnL-$107.1

Up1 trader

Total Value$8.77

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$3.82

Down — 91%Up — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 41.1¢	$46.36	—	-$46.36	60% 2617-1724 (4341)
BA 0xba67...4727CTR<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$24.6	—	-$24.6	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$8.48	—	-$8.48	49% 767-785 (1552)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$4.95	$8.77	+$3.82	38% 709-1165 (1874)
D8 0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$3.47	—	-$3.47	—
5E 0x5e8e...8212CTR<$100	Downavg 43.6¢	$3.82	—	-$3.82	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$3.5	—	-$2.5	58% 2028-1497 (3525)
06 0x06b2...9f35CTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.05	—	-$2.05	—
42 0x424e...263bCTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	—
5D 0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$1.47	—	-$1.47	—
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$12.55	—	-$12.55	44% 990-1249 (2239)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$46.36

Value

—

PnL

-$46.36

Record

60%

2617-1724 (4341)

0xba67...4727CTR<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

—

PnL

-$24.6

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$8.48

Value

—

PnL

-$8.48

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$8.77

PnL

+$3.82

Record

38%

709-1165 (1874)

0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

—

PnL

-$3.47

Record

—

0x5e8e...8212CTR<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

—

PnL

-$3.82

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

0x06b2...9f35CTR<$100

Invested

$2.05

Value

—

PnL

-$2.05

Record

—

0x424e...263bCTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

—

0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100

Invested

$1.47

Value

—

PnL

-$1.47

Record

—

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$12.55

Value

—

PnL

-$12.55

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 11 top traders (91%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xedaf5ccb...3820ef

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794447000

Traders in this Market

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

0xba67...4727

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $8.77

0xd8f1...74a9

Down — $0

0x5e8e...8212

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0x06b2...9f35

Down — $0

0x424e...263b

Down — $0

0x5d4a...55d3

Down — $0

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