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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 50%

Total Value

$316.77

Combined PnL

-$273.75

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares461

Combined PnL-$471.04

Down4 traders

Total Value$316.77

Total Shares317

Combined PnL+$197.29

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 69.4¢	$438.71	—	-$438.71	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 31.4¢	$69.56	$221.72	+$152.16	60% 2597-1705 (4302)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$30.68	$65.05	+$34.37	49% 706-726 (1432)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$14.54	$20	+$5.46	48% 962-1040 (2002)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$14.88	—	-$14.88	37% 435-728 (1163)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.7	$10	+$5.3	58% 1948-1427 (3375)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	44% 945-1197 (2142)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 63.2¢	$15.95	—	-$15.95	74% 723-254 (977)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$438.71

Value

—

PnL

-$438.71

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$69.56

Value

$221.72

PnL

+$152.16

Record

60%

2597-1705 (4302)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$30.68

Value

$65.05

PnL

+$34.37

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

Invested

$14.54

Value

$20

PnL

+$5.46

Record

48%

962-1040 (2002)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$14.88

Value

—

PnL

-$14.88

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

ByteBadger92<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.3

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

44%

945-1197 (2142)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$15.95

Value

—

PnL

-$15.95

Record

74%

723-254 (977)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6c153ccc...658341

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794437100

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $221.72

uninformedfloww

Down — $65.05

ohioism

Down — $20

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $10

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Up — $0

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