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DownUpUpUpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$62.73
Combined PnL
-$6.14
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares69
Combined PnL-$6.87
Down1 trader
Total Value$2.73
Total Shares3
Combined PnL+$0.73
Up — 75%Down — 25%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 93.1¢ | $56.42 | $60 | +$3.58 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 93.1¢ | $55.86 | $60 | +$4.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 1.1¢ | $0.56 | — | -$0.56 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.3¢ | $6.52 | — | -$6.52 | 61% 2518-1634 (4152) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 38% 369-603 (972) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 39% 586-930 (1516) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $2.73 | +$0.73 | 58% 1605-1176 (2781) |
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100Invested
$56.42
Value
$60
PnL
+$3.58
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Both legs:
Down$55.8693.1¢+$4.14
Up$0.561.1¢-$0.56
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100Invested
$6.52
Value
—
PnL
-$6.52
Record
61%
2518-1634 (4152)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
38%
369-603 (972)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
586-930 (1516)
BY
ByteBadger92<$100Invested
$9.1
Value
$2.73
PnL
+$0.73
Record
58%
1605-1176 (2781)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x58fc2d89...f374fd
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1794398400