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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Down 60%
Total Value
$138.87
Combined PnL
-$171.42
Smart Money Signal
Down
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,042
Combined PnL-$178.06
Up2 traders
Total Value$138.87
Total Shares139
Combined PnL+$6.65
Down — 60%Up — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR | Downavg 15.5¢ | $158.01 | — | -$158.01 | 47% 473-543 (1016) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 93% 24319-1811 (26130) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $33.22 | $38.87 | +$5.65 | 65% 112572-59423 (171995) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $18.45 | — | -$18.45 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 52% 91321-85769 (177090) |
0X
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTRInvested
$158.01
Value
—
PnL
-$158.01
Record
47%
473-543 (1016)
HO
hoodquantInvested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
93%
24319-1811 (26130)
AN
antsaslyku<$100Invested
$33.22
Value
$38.87
PnL
+$5.65
Record
65%
112572-59423 (171995)
AA
aaa221CTR<$100Invested
$18.45
Value
—
PnL
-$18.45
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
52%
91321-85769 (177090)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd1b3cd37...53a6af
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1793563200