Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on November 7?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.3K
$172.13
75.7¢ → 97.1¢
+28% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 75.4¢ | $979.01 | $1.2K | +$210.91 | 65% 3106-1654 (4760) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $39.28 | $48.63 | +$9.35 | 62% 880-543 (1423) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 82.6¢ | $41.3 | $48.55 | +$6.55 | 52% 31278-29168 (60446) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Noavg 6.1¢ | $1.02 | $1.54 | +$0.52 | 41% 371-536 (907) |
GE getbippedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | $47.52 | $1.5 | -$46.01 | 50% 260-255 (515) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54.6¢ | $31.11 | $0.54 | -$9.18 | 35% 19622-37185 (56807) |
Invested
$979.01
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$210.91
Record
65%
3106-1654 (4760)
Invested
$39.28
Value
$48.63
PnL
+$9.35
Record
62%
880-543 (1423)
balthazar<$100Invested
$41.3
Value
$48.55
PnL
+$6.55
Record
52%
31278-29168 (60446)
Invested
$1.02
Value
$1.54
PnL
+$0.52
Record
41%
371-536 (907)
Invested
$47.52
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$46.01
Record
50%
260-255 (515)
Invested
$31.11
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$9.18
Record
35%
19622-37185 (56807)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.