Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the summit?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 87¢ · $667 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$667.33
$15.7
92¢ → 86.5¢
-6% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 38%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 94¢ | $122.2 | $124.8 | +$2.6 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $119.45 | $120 | +$0.55 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 77.3¢ | $97.99 | $105.84 | +$7.84 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $95.2 | $96 | +$0.8 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $63.05 | $65.09 | +$2.04 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $41.85 | $42.74 | +$0.89 | — 2-14 (16) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $38.91 | $39.32 | +$0.41 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $28.8 | +$0.6 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $28.8 | +$0 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.7¢ | $15.98 | $15.95 | -$0.03 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$122.2
Value
$124.8
PnL
+$2.6
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$119.45
Value
$120
PnL
+$0.55
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
Invested
$97.99
Value
$105.84
PnL
+$7.84
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$95.2
Value
$96
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$63.05
Value
$65.09
PnL
+$2.04
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$41.85
Value
$42.74
PnL
+$0.89
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$38.91
Value
$39.32
PnL
+$0.41
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$0.6
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$28.8
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
Invested
$15.98
Value
$15.95
PnL
-$0.03
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.