Will Xi and Takaichi only be photographed shaking hands during the summit?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $145 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$144.68
-$5.04
93.8¢ → 99.9¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $42.27 | $42.72 | +$0.45 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $37.2 | $38 | +$0.8 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.9 | $28.5 | +$0.6 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $19.05 | $19.46 | +$0.41 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $16.37 | $15.86 | -$0.5 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $29.65 | $0.08 | -$3 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $3.85 | $0.06 | -$3.79 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$42.27
Value
$42.72
PnL
+$0.45
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$37.2
Value
$38
PnL
+$0.8
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$0.6
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
Invested
$19.05
Value
$19.46
PnL
+$0.41
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.37
Value
$15.86
PnL
-$0.5
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$29.65
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$3
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$3.79
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.