Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the summit?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $350 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$349.5
-$0.02
57¢ → 56.5¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 42%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $74.1 | $74.1 | +$0 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $71.25 | $71.25 | +$0 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $57 | $57 | +$0 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $38.85 | $38.65 | -$0.2 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $25.4 | $25.58 | +$0.18 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $25.38 | $25.38 | +$0 | — 2-14 (16) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $23.35 | $23.35 | +$0 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $17.1 | $17.1 | +$0 | 27% 917-2511 (3428) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $17.1 | $17.1 | +$0 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
Invested
$74.1
Value
$74.1
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$71.25
Value
$71.25
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
Invested
$57
Value
$57
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$38.85
Value
$38.65
PnL
-$0.2
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$25.4
Value
$25.58
PnL
+$0.18
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
Invested
$25.38
Value
$25.38
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$23.35
Value
$23.35
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$17.1
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
917-2511 (3428)
Invested
$17.1
Value
$17.1
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.