Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the summit?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $456 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$456.44
$0.26
99.6¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.7¢ | $129.61 | $129.74 | +$0.13 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 99.7¢ | $124.63 | $124.75 | +$0.13 | 27% 917-2511 (3428) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $66.83 | $67.66 | +$0.84 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $59.88 | $59.88 | +$0 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $44.43 | $44.43 | +$0 | — 2-14 (16) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $0.87 | $0.03 | -$0.84 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$129.61
Value
$129.74
PnL
+$0.13
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$124.63
Value
$124.75
PnL
+$0.13
Record
27%
917-2511 (3428)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$66.83
Value
$67.66
PnL
+$0.84
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$59.88
Value
$59.88
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$44.43
Value
$44.43
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.84
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.