Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the summit?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 97¢ · $517 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$517.25
$9.67
96.5¢ → 96.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 96¢ | $124.8 | $128.7 | +$3.9 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 96¢ | $120 | $123.75 | +$3.75 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $79.79 | $80.99 | +$1.2 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $64.83 | $67.12 | +$2.3 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $44.07 | $44.07 | +$0 | — 2-14 (16) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $39.68 | $40.55 | +$0.87 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $28.8 | $29.7 | +$0.9 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.4¢ | $5.6 | $2.36 | -$3.24 | 41% 3090-4455 (7545) |
Invested
$124.8
Value
$128.7
PnL
+$3.9
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$120
Value
$123.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
Invested
$79.79
Value
$80.99
PnL
+$1.2
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$64.83
Value
$67.12
PnL
+$2.3
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$44.07
Value
$44.07
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$39.68
Value
$40.55
PnL
+$0.87
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$0.9
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$2.36
PnL
-$3.24
Record
41%
3090-4455 (7545)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.