Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jahnie Van Zyl, while the market favors Yasmine Kabbaj (66%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Luanda: Jahnie Van Zyl vs Yasmine Kabbaj

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Jahnie Van Zyl (46%) · Jahnie Van Zyl at 34¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Jahnie Van Zyl34¢Yasmine Kabbaj66¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jahnie Van Zyl

Consensus Traders

Jahnie Van Zyl 46%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$194.95

Smart Money Entry

32¢ → 34¢

+6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJahnie Van Zyl at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jahnie Van Zyl

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yasmine Kabbaj 66%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jahnie Van Zyl34%

Yasmine Kabbaj66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jahnie Van Zyl6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares3,607

Combined PnL+$188.9

Yasmine Kabbaj7 traders

Total Value$696.81

Total Shares978

Combined PnL+$6.05

Jahnie Van Zyl — 46%Yasmine Kabbaj — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 73.4¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$132.91	58% 48512-34664 (83176)
└ Yasmine Kabbaj leg	Yasmine Kabbajavg 73.4¢	$1.0K	$889.94	-$123.26
└ Jahnie Van Zyl leg	Jahnie Van Zylavg 36.6¢	$330.92	$321.28	-$9.64
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 68.9¢	$1.5K	$895.67	-$39.12	47% 13002-14566 (27568)
└ Yasmine Kabbaj leg	Yasmine Kabbajavg 68.9¢	$837.89	$674.95	-$115.54
└ Jahnie Van Zyl leg	Jahnie Van Zylavg 29.1¢	$144.3	$220.72	+$76.42
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Jahnie Van Zylavg 29.4¢	$583.84	$815.65	+$231.81	52% 5702-5267 (10969)
FL Flaznorp	Yasmine Kabbajavg 73¢	$389.74	$400.27	+$10.52	51% 17613-16616 (34229)
RN1CTR	Jahnie Van Zylavg 39.8¢	$372.69	$323.12	-$49.57	54% 58127-50358 (108485)
tradecraftARB<$100	Jahnie Van Zylavg 30.1¢	$214.4	$188.86	-$25.54	51% 6153-5872 (12025)
└ Jahnie Van Zyl leg	Jahnie Van Zylavg 30.1¢	$152.52	$123.97	-$28.55
└ Yasmine Kabbaj leg	Yasmine Kabbajavg 72¢	$61.88	$64.89	+$3.01
EU Eulhunter	Yasmine Kabbajavg 64.9¢	$152.53	$139.83	-$12.71	54% 5907-4953 (10860)
SU suntoriARB<$100	Jahnie Van Zylavg 36¢	$145.7	$139.12	-$6.58	45% 12902-15667 (28569)
└ Jahnie Van Zyl leg	Jahnie Van Zylavg 36¢	$95.23	$93.91	-$1.32
└ Yasmine Kabbaj leg	Yasmine Kabbajavg 72¢	$50.47	$45.21	-$5.26
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Jahnie Van Zylavg 27.7¢	$125.78	$120.31	-$5.47	58% 29905-21965 (51870)
VeryLucky888	Yasmine Kabbajavg 69¢	$103.01	$109.73	+$6.72	58% 43600-31711 (75311)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Jahnie Van Zylavg 31.9¢	$209.86	$96.18	+$15.21	60% 4149-2784 (6933)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 71¢	$33.08	$34.24	+$1.16	50% 19815-20158 (39973)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Jahnie Van Zylavg 30.3¢	$19.1	$16.7	-$2.4	66% 23620-11932 (35552)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Jahnie Van Zylavg 30.1¢	$5.73	$5.06	-$0.68	47% 10054-11163 (21217)
NO NotJump<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 48¢	$4.98	$5.04	+$0.05	43% 7731-10455 (18186)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 72.5¢	$12.17	$4.03	+$0.07	86% 6398-1078 (7476)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 69¢	$3.45	$3.68	+$0.22	52% 7639-6913 (14552)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$1,344.12

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$132.91

Record

58%

48512-34664 (83176)

Both legs:

Yasmine Kabbaj$1,013.273.4¢-$123.26

Jahnie Van Zyl$330.9236.6¢-$9.64

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$1,513.31

Value

$895.67

PnL

-$39.12

Record

47%

13002-14566 (27568)

Both legs:

Yasmine Kabbaj$837.8968.9¢-$115.54

Jahnie Van Zyl$144.329.1¢+$76.42

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$583.84

Value

$815.65

PnL

+$231.81

Record

52%

5702-5267 (10969)

Flaznorp

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$389.74

Value

$400.27

PnL

+$10.52

Record

51%

17613-16616 (34229)

RN1CTR

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$372.69

Value

$323.12

PnL

-$49.57

Record

54%

58127-50358 (108485)

tradecraftARB<$100

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$214.4

Value

$188.86

PnL

-$25.54

Record

51%

6153-5872 (12025)

Both legs:

Jahnie Van Zyl$152.5230.1¢-$28.55

Yasmine Kabbaj$61.8872¢+$3.01

Eulhunter

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$152.53

Value

$139.83

PnL

-$12.71

Record

54%

5907-4953 (10860)

suntoriARB<$100

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$145.7

Value

$139.12

PnL

-$6.58

Record

45%

12902-15667 (28569)

Both legs:

Jahnie Van Zyl$95.2336¢-$1.32

Yasmine Kabbaj$50.4772¢-$5.26

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$125.78

Value

$120.31

PnL

-$5.47

Record

58%

29905-21965 (51870)

VeryLucky888

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$103.01

Value

$109.73

PnL

+$6.72

Record

58%

43600-31711 (75311)

thestingsnakeCTR

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$209.86

Value

$96.18

PnL

+$15.21

Record

60%

4149-2784 (6933)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$33.08

Value

$34.24

PnL

+$1.16

Record

50%

19815-20158 (39973)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$19.1

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$2.4

Record

66%

23620-11932 (35552)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Jahnie Van Zyl

Invested

$5.73

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0.68

Record

47%

10054-11163 (21217)

NotJump<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$4.98

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

7731-10455 (18186)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$12.17

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.07

Record

86%

6398-1078 (7476)

ameisgoat11<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.68

PnL

+$0.22

Record

52%

7639-6913 (14552)

Research grade

NeutralJahnie Van Zyl at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jahnie Van Zyl

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yasmine Kabbaj 66%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jahnie Van Zyl wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.