Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary Stoiana

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mary Stoiana (63%) · Mary Stoiana at 86¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 9

Venus Williams14¢Mary Stoiana86¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mary Stoiana

Consensus Traders

Mary Stoiana 63%

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$111.93

Smart Money Entry

84.6¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMary Stoiana at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mary Stoiana

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Venus Williams14%

Mary Stoiana86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mary Stoiana5 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares9,385

Combined PnL+$113.59

Venus Williams3 traders

Total Value$366.43

Total Shares2,584

Combined PnL-$1.66

Mary Stoiana — 63%Venus Williams — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Mary Stoiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMary Stoiana 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpVenus Williams 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMary Stoiana 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMary Stoiana 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mary Stoiana 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0F 0F62	Mary Stoianaavg 85.4¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$38.05	53% 2121-1865 (3986)
FL Flaznorp	Mary Stoianaavg 83¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$72.95	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
38 38791873984189	Mary Stoiana	$304.9	$304.9	+$0	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Venus Williamsavg 14.5¢	$196.24	$189.7	-$6.54	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
VeryLucky888CTR	Venus Williamsavg 14¢	$133.71	$135.57	+$4.88	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
0xheavy888	Mary Stoianaavg 84¢	$131.04	$134.16	+$2.34	55% 7454-5978 (13432)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Venus Williamsavg 14¢	$41.16	$41.16	+$0	46% 9226-10934 (20160)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mary Stoianaavg 83.5¢	$8.35	$8.6	+$0.25	52% 7634-6911 (14545)

0F62

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$5,074.04

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$38.05

Record

53%

2121-1865 (3986)

Flaznorp

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$2,421.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$72.95

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

38791873984189

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$304.9

Value

$304.9

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$196.24

Value

$189.7

PnL

-$6.54

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

VeryLucky888CTR

Venus Williams

Invested

$133.71

Value

$135.57

PnL

+$4.88

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

0xheavy888

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$131.04

Value

$134.16

PnL

+$2.34

Record

55%

7454-5978 (13432)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Venus Williams

Invested

$41.16

Value

$41.16

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

9226-10934 (20160)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mary Stoiana

Invested

$8.35

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

7634-6911 (14545)

Research grade

NeutralMary Stoiana at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mary Stoiana

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Mary Stoiana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMary Stoiana 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpVenus Williams 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMary Stoiana 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMary Stoiana 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Mary Stoiana 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mary Stoiana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.