Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Xinyu Wang vs Antonia Ruzic

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Xinyu Wang (64%) · Xinyu Wang at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12

Xinyu Wang56¢Antonia Ruzic44¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Xinyu Wang

Consensus Traders

Xinyu Wang 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$26.56

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 56.5¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralXinyu Wang at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Xinyu Wang

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Xinyu Wang56%

Antonia Ruzic44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Xinyu Wang7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,897

Combined PnL-$10.75

Antonia Ruzic4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,497

Combined PnL-$15.81

Xinyu Wang — 64%Antonia Ruzic — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Xinyu Wang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleXinyu Wang 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpAntonia Ruzic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAntonia Ruzic 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAntonia Ruzic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Antonia Ruzic 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Xinyu Wangavg 53.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$11.07	50% 525-521 (1046)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Antonia Ruzicavg 47.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$14.01	71% 7122-2863 (9985)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Xinyu Wangavg 56¢	$1.0K	$513.91	-$58.82	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
└ Xinyu Wang leg	Xinyu Wangavg 56¢	$280	$285	+$5
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 48¢	$255.52	$228.91	-$63.82
OM omnibus-076daa	Xinyu Wangavg 54.6¢	$498.97	$484.26	-$14.71	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Xinyu Wangavg 56.2¢	$430.66	$374.58	-$5.16	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
└ Xinyu Wang leg	Xinyu Wangavg 56.2¢	$242.92	$244.08	+$1.16
└ Antonia Ruzic leg	Antonia Ruzicavg 44.9¢	$134.74	$130.5	-$6.32
NM NM-P	Xinyu Wangavg 56¢	$278.89	$283.87	+$4.98	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
GC GC-P	Xinyu Wangavg 56¢	$251.64	$256.14	+$4.49	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
FL Flaznorp	Xinyu Wangavg 56¢	$218.2	$222.1	+$3.9	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
0xheavy888<$100	Xinyu Wangavg 56¢	$83.44	$84.93	+$1.49	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Antonia Ruzicavg 48¢	$67.85	$66.43	-$1.41	61% 14037-9041 (23078)
SE sentrio<$100	Xinyu Wangavg 56¢	$19.09	$19.26	+$0.17	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Antonia Ruzicavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.4	+$0.2	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Antonia Ruzicavg 47.4¢	$7.11	$6.53	-$0.59	52% 8584-7828 (16412)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$2,376.46

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$11.07

Record

50%

525-521 (1046)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$1,104.87

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$14.01

Record

71%

7122-2863 (9985)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$1,003.56

Value

$513.91

PnL

-$58.82

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

Both legs:

Xinyu Wang$28056¢+$5

Antonia Ruzic$255.5248¢-$63.82

omnibus-076daa

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$498.97

Value

$484.26

PnL

-$14.71

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$430.66

Value

$374.58

PnL

-$5.16

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

Both legs:

Xinyu Wang$242.9256.2¢+$1.16

Antonia Ruzic$134.7444.9¢-$6.32

NM-P

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$278.89

Value

$283.87

PnL

+$4.98

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

GC-P

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$251.64

Value

$256.14

PnL

+$4.49

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

Flaznorp

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$218.2

Value

$222.1

PnL

+$3.9

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

0xheavy888<$100

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$83.44

Value

$84.93

PnL

+$1.49

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$67.85

Value

$66.43

PnL

-$1.41

Record

61%

14037-9041 (23078)

sentrio<$100

Xinyu Wang

Invested

$19.09

Value

$19.26

PnL

+$0.17

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Antonia Ruzic

Invested

$7.11

Value

$6.53

PnL

-$0.59

Record

52%

8584-7828 (16412)

Research grade

NeutralXinyu Wang at 56%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Xinyu Wang

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Xinyu Wang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleXinyu Wang 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpAntonia Ruzic 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrAntonia Ruzic 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedAntonia Ruzic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Antonia Ruzic 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Xinyu Wang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.