Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Katie Volynets vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich

20 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Aliaksandra Sasnovich (71%) · Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 69¢ · $258K held · ends Nov 9

Katie Volynets32¢Aliaksandra Sasnovich68¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Consensus Traders

Aliaksandra Sasnovich 71%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$258.0K

Combined PnL

$14.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 68.5¢

+33% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAliaksandra Sasnovich at 69%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

20 of 28 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Katie Volynets32%

Aliaksandra Sasnovich69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aliaksandra Sasnovich20 traders

Total Value$107.0K

Total Shares147,889

Combined PnL+$14.3K

Katie Volynets8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,435

Combined PnL-$14.98

Aliaksandra Sasnovich — 71%Katie Volynets — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NS NS13ARB<$100	Katie Volynetsavg 49.7¢	$170.2K	$137.8K	$-32.4K	51% 384-363 (747)
└ Katie Volynets leg	Katie Volynetsavg 49.7¢	$136.3K	$100.1K	$-36.3K
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 57¢	$33.9K	$37.7K	+$3.8K
RN1	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 53.2¢	$47.1K	$51.3K	+$4.2K	54% 58111-50353 (108464)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 44.4¢	$15.1K	$20.3K	+$5.2K	52% 5697-5265 (10962)
65 6512395314597884	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 51.3¢	$14.8K	$17.7K	+$2.9K	52% 2923-2744 (5667)
FL Flaznorp	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 58.7¢	$3.8K	$4.4K	+$561.72	51% 17602-16613 (34215)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 58.5¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$141.46	52% 14022-12784 (26806)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 58.5¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$236.69
└ Katie Volynets leg	Katie Volynetsavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$378.15
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 56.2¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$85.04	58% 48497-34660 (83157)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 56.2¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$299.53
└ Katie Volynets leg	Katie Volynetsavg 39.8¢	$1.2K	$953.89	-$214.49
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$310.19	47% 2620-2921 (5541)
38 38791873984189	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 50.8¢	$3.1K	$2.3K	+$309.27	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100	Katie Volynetsavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$233.1	51% 1590-1531 (3121)
└ Katie Volynets leg	Katie Volynetsavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$227.25
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 61.9¢	$934.5	$928.65	-$5.85
CH chiefphi	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 62¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$15.26	52% 124-113 (237)
SE sentrio	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 56.1¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$278.31	50% 24998-24713 (49711)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$195	53% 5746-5083 (10829)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 46.3¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$118.64	43% 7723-10448 (18171)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 46.3¢	$926.36	$830	-$96.36
└ Katie Volynets leg	Katie Volynetsavg 37¢	$370	$585	+$215
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 59¢	$3.3K	$1.2K	-$167.75	53% 675-604 (1279)
└ Aliaksandra Sasnovich leg	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 59¢	$841.14	$962.25	+$31.33
└ Katie Volynets leg	Katie Volynetsavg 51.3¢	$404.69	$256.39	-$199.08
VeryLucky888	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 55.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$150.7	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
MR MrDoucheCTR	Katie Volynetsavg 42¢	$840	$830	-$10	82% 1695-370 (2065)
RE RebornAthenaCTR	Katie Volynetsavg 58¢	$600	$594.83	-$5.17	53% 2022-1823 (3845)
EU Eulhunter	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 54.6¢	$470.11	$533.01	+$62.9	54% 5901-4950 (10851)
TH thestingsnake	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 53.6¢	$626.54	$526.5	+$58.77	60% 4143-2783 (6926)
88M	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 40¢	$400	$405	+$5	42% 799-1094 (1893)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 57¢	$157.91	$159.3	+$1.39	54% 190-164 (354)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Katie Volynetsavg 57¢	$82.08	$82.8	+$0.72	50% 4008-3989 (7997)
0xheavy888<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 56¢	$76.06	$76.74	+$0.68	55% 7454-5978 (13432)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Katie Volynetsavg 45¢	$54.17	$53.57	-$0.6	50% 19810-20152 (39962)

NS13ARB<$100

Katie Volynets

Invested

$170,228.91

Value

$137.8K

PnL

$-32.4K

Record

51%

384-363 (747)

Both legs:

Katie Volynets$136,341.6349.7¢$-36.3K

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$33,887.2857¢+$3.8K

RN1

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$47,131.35

Value

$51.3K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

54%

58111-50353 (108464)

CandleHammerDrums

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$15,090.49

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

52%

5697-5265 (10962)

6512395314597884

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$14,770.74

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

52%

2923-2744 (5667)

Flaznorp

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$3,795.8

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$561.72

Record

51%

17602-16613 (34215)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$4,221.73

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$141.46

Record

52%

14022-12784 (26806)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$2,743.1358.5¢+$236.69

Katie Volynets$1,478.649¢-$378.15

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$2,665.34

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$85.04

Record

58%

48497-34660 (83157)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$1,496.9656.2¢+$299.53

Katie Volynets$1,168.3839.8¢-$214.49

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$2,386.1

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$310.19

Record

47%

2620-2921 (5541)

38791873984189

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$3,145.98

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$309.27

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080ARB<$100

Katie Volynets

Invested

$2,328.3

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$233.1

Record

51%

1590-1531 (3121)

Both legs:

Katie Volynets$1,393.846¢-$227.25

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$934.561.9¢-$5.85

chiefphi

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$15.26

Record

52%

124-113 (237)

sentrio

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$1,496.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$278.31

Record

50%

24998-24713 (49711)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$195

Record

53%

5746-5083 (10829)

NotJumpARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$1,296.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$118.64

Record

43%

7723-10448 (18171)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$926.3646.3¢-$96.36

Katie Volynets$37037¢+$215

1lovejumpARB<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$3,322.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$167.75

Record

53%

675-604 (1279)

Both legs:

Aliaksandra Sasnovich$841.1459¢+$31.33

Katie Volynets$404.6951.3¢-$199.08

VeryLucky888

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$1,100.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$150.7

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

MrDoucheCTR

Katie Volynets

Invested

$840

Value

$830

PnL

-$10

Record

82%

1695-370 (2065)

RebornAthenaCTR

Katie Volynets

Invested

$600

Value

$594.83

PnL

-$5.17

Record

53%

2022-1823 (3845)

Eulhunter

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$470.11

Value

$533.01

PnL

+$62.9

Record

54%

5901-4950 (10851)

thestingsnake

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$626.54

Value

$526.5

PnL

+$58.77

Record

60%

4143-2783 (6926)

88M

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$400

Value

$405

PnL

+$5

Record

42%

799-1094 (1893)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$157.91

Value

$159.3

PnL

+$1.39

Record

54%

190-164 (354)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Katie Volynets

Invested

$82.08

Value

$82.8

PnL

+$0.72

Record

50%

4008-3989 (7997)

0xheavy888<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$76.06

Value

$76.74

PnL

+$0.68

Record

55%

7454-5978 (13432)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Katie Volynets

Invested

$54.17

Value

$53.57

PnL

-$0.6

Record

50%

19810-20152 (39962)

Research grade

Research candidateAliaksandra Sasnovich at 69%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

20 of 28 top traders (71%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aliaksandra Sasnovich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.