Cali: Alice Tubello vs Bianca Andreescu

21 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Bianca Andreescu (84%) · Bianca Andreescu at 100¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 13

Alice Tubello<1¢Bianca Andreescu>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bianca Andreescu

Consensus Traders

Bianca Andreescu 84%

Total Value

$38.7K

Combined PnL

$742.95

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 21 traders

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

21 of 25 top traders (84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Alice Tubello0%

Bianca Andreescu100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bianca Andreescu21 traders

Total Value$38.6K

Total Shares39,979

Combined PnL+$809.67

Alice Tubello4 traders

Total Value$195.75

Total Shares3,567

Combined PnL-$66.72

Bianca Andreescu — 84%Alice Tubello — 16%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBianca Andreescu 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpBianca Andreescu 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBianca Andreescu 77% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 79% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Bianca Andreescuavg 86¢	$16.4K	$17.1K	+$967.97	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
RN1	Bianca Andreescuavg 90.9¢	$8.1K	$8.4K	+$317.09	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
FL Flaznorp	Bianca Andreescuavg 90.7¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$18.57	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
65 6512395314597884	Bianca Andreescuavg 90.7¢	$3.9K	$3.4K	-$957.63	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
38 38791873984189	Bianca Andreescuavg 87.6¢	$3.9K	$898.56	+$136.65	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bianca Andreescuavg 93.9¢	$563.44	$563.77	+$0.34	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
WH whosay	Bianca Andreescuavg 95.2¢	$543.33	$536.27	-$8.56	56% 1164-901 (2065)
TH thestingsnake	Bianca Andreescuavg 75.1¢	$478.04	$491.28	+$88.86	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
LI Limousin	Bianca Andreescuavg 88.9¢	$455.37	$487.54	+$32.18	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
EU Eulhunter	Bianca Andreescuavg 93.3¢	$504.72	$485.89	-$18.83	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
0xheavy888	Bianca Andreescuavg 72¢	$312.37	$409.99	+$97.62	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
1L 1lovejump	Bianca Andreescuavg 77.3¢	$350.19	$391.46	+$41.27	53% 827-732 (1559)
VeryLucky888	Bianca Andreescuavg 72.1¢	$237.75	$290.68	+$67.91	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
GA Gaditima	Bianca Andreescuavg 96.2¢	$783.44	$276.04	-$7.4	47% 7500-8312 (15812)
CI cigarettesCTR	Alice Tubelloavg 5¢	$7.84	$191.35	-$59.25	53% 24342-21404 (45746)
Rex416<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 95¢	$100	$98.94	-$2.11	57% 2623-2005 (4628)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.9¢	$93.74	$92.87	+$0.64	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
VE Venusian<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 73¢	$70.92	$90.8	+$19.87	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
dips.<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 94.3¢	$77.45	$76.73	-$0.72	47% 11022-12642 (23664)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 87.4¢	$50.71	$54.52	+$5.01	57% 19424-14373 (33797)
FE ferrariChampions2026<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 89¢	$34.33	$44.15	+$9.82	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 72¢	$3.6	$4.7	+$1.13	52% 9018-8169 (17187)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 15.8¢	$7.98	$2.9	-$5.08	64% 5376-2995 (8371)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 5¢	$1	$1	-$0.1	55% 9930-8242 (18172)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Alice Tubelloavg 28¢	$2.8	$0.5	-$2.3	48% 1775-1911 (3686)

LightParadox

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$16,379.8

Value

$17.1K

PnL

+$967.97

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

RN1

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$8,106.03

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$317.09

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

Flaznorp

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$4,410.15

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$18.57

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

6512395314597884

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$3,876.29

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$957.63

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

38791873984189

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$3,894.1

Value

$898.56

PnL

+$136.65

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$563.44

Value

$563.77

PnL

+$0.34

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

whosay

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$543.33

Value

$536.27

PnL

-$8.56

Record

56%

1164-901 (2065)

thestingsnake

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$478.04

Value

$491.28

PnL

+$88.86

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

Limousin

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$455.37

Value

$487.54

PnL

+$32.18

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Eulhunter

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$504.72

Value

$485.89

PnL

-$18.83

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

0xheavy888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$312.37

Value

$409.99

PnL

+$97.62

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

1lovejump

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$350.19

Value

$391.46

PnL

+$41.27

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

VeryLucky888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$237.75

Value

$290.68

PnL

+$67.91

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Gaditima

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$783.44

Value

$276.04

PnL

-$7.4

Record

47%

7500-8312 (15812)

cigarettesCTR

Alice Tubello

Invested

$7.84

Value

$191.35

PnL

-$59.25

Record

53%

24342-21404 (45746)

Rex416<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$100

Value

$98.94

PnL

-$2.11

Record

57%

2623-2005 (4628)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$93.74

Value

$92.87

PnL

+$0.64

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

Venusian<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$70.92

Value

$90.8

PnL

+$19.87

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

dips.<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$77.45

Value

$76.73

PnL

-$0.72

Record

47%

11022-12642 (23664)

BillBenter2026<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$50.71

Value

$54.52

PnL

+$5.01

Record

57%

19424-14373 (33797)

ferrariChampions2026<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$34.33

Value

$44.15

PnL

+$9.82

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$3.6

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$1.13

Record

52%

9018-8169 (17187)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$7.98

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$5.08

Record

64%

5376-2995 (8371)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

9930-8242 (18172)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Alice Tubello

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.3

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

21 of 25 top traders (84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBianca Andreescu 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpBianca Andreescu 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBianca Andreescu 77% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 79% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bianca Andreescu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.