Chennai Open: Janice Tjen vs Robin Montgomery

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Janice Tjen (52%) · Janice Tjen at 84¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 14

Janice Tjen84¢Robin Montgomery16¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Janice Tjen

Consensus Traders

Janice Tjen 52%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.2K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 83.5¢

+30% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralJanice Tjen at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Janice Tjen

11 of 21 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Janice Tjen84%

Robin Montgomery17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Janice Tjen11 traders

Total Value$30.1K

Total Shares41,760

Combined PnL+$64.42

Robin Montgomery10 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares39,112

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Janice Tjen — 52%Robin Montgomery — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Janice Tjen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Janice Tjen) and the top 1000 (6 on Robin Montgomery) disagree here.

whaleJanice Tjen 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJanice Tjen 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJanice Tjen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Robin Montgomery 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK Kkunn	Janice Tjenavg 59.8¢	$14.0K	$13.9K	-$79.99	42% 253-345 (598)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 41.1¢	$8.2K	$8.3K	+$73.84	53% 667-585 (1252)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Janice Tjenavg 81.6¢	$8.9K	$7.5K	$-1.4K	42% 8168-11359 (19527)
MA MadridTime	Janice Tjenavg 61.5¢	$3.4K	$4.4K	+$1.1K	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
0xheavy888	Janice Tjenavg 59.5¢	$1.1K	$2.5K	+$130	56% 8222-6527 (14749)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 40¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$25	55% 790-658 (1448)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 40.8¢	$3.2K	$1.4K	$-1.7K	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
VeryLucky888	Janice Tjenavg 59.3¢	$894.49	$1.3K	+$362.57	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 16.3¢	$569.98	$623.49	+$53.5	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 16.3¢	$357.08	$384.24	+$27.15
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 73.4¢	$212.9	$239.25	+$26.35
RN1CTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 30.1¢	$1.1K	$536.96	-$577.61	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Janice Tjenavg 64.8¢	$890.55	$398.17	+$89.02	53% 827-732 (1559)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 64.8¢	$229.91	$289.01	+$106.63
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 18.5¢	$108.97	$109.16	-$17.61
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Janice Tjenavg 61.7¢	$349.79	$354.08	+$71.5	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 61.7¢	$184.99	$253.33	+$75.55
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 16.1¢	$104.8	$100.75	-$4.05
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 36.9¢	$433	$324.89	-$99.9	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 73.5¢	$192.55	$216.14	+$23.59
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 36.9¢	$229.23	$108.75	-$123.49
VE VenusianARB<$100	Janice Tjenavg 63.7¢	$341.16	$322.69	-$18.47	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 63.7¢	$178.5	$228.34	+$49.85
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 31.9¢	$162.66	$94.35	-$68.31
LI Limousin	Janice Tjenavg 79.8¢	$263.84	$267.85	+$4.02	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
tradecraftARB<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 20¢	$219.71	$233.93	+$14.22	51% 6512-6276 (12788)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 61.2¢	$97.92	$133.6	+$35.68
└ Robin Montgomery leg	Robin Montgomeryavg 20¢	$121.79	$100.33	-$21.46
EU EulhunterCTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 26.8¢	$383	$207.21	-$175.78	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Robin Montgomeryavg 28¢	$209.89	$198.75	-$11.14	51% 2057-1996 (4053)
MR MrBently	Janice Tjenavg 64.2¢	$102.02	$99.38	-$2.65	52% 614-558 (1172)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 41.3¢	$73.86	$73.39	-$0.47	46% 8769-10462 (19231)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Janice Tjenavg 65.5¢	$62.25	$63.07	+$0.83	64% 5376-2994 (8370)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 39.8¢	$90.73	$37.62	-$53.11	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
0F 0x0f76...dcc9<$100	Janice Tjenavg 83.7¢	$33.48	$33.8	+$0.32	—
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Janice Tjenavg 72.4¢	$25.35	$27.13	+$1.77	57% 19424-14372 (33796)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 39¢	$7.8	$8.1	+$0.3	55% 9921-8233 (18154)

Kkunn

Janice Tjen

Invested

$14,007.87

Value

$13.9K

PnL

-$79.99

Record

42%

253-345 (598)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$8,226.16

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$73.84

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

ferrariChampions2026

Janice Tjen

Invested

$8,944.01

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

42%

8168-11359 (19527)

MadridTime

Janice Tjen

Invested

$3,350.16

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

0xheavy888

Janice Tjen

Invested

$1,097.51

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$130

Record

56%

8222-6527 (14749)

pltrkr111CTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$25

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

LightParadoxCTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$3,168.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

VeryLucky888

Janice Tjen

Invested

$894.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$362.57

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$569.98

Value

$623.49

PnL

+$53.5

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

Both legs:

Robin Montgomery$357.0816.3¢+$27.15

Janice Tjen$212.973.4¢+$26.35

RN1CTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$1,114.57

Value

$536.96

PnL

-$577.61

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$890.55

Value

$398.17

PnL

+$89.02

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$229.9164.8¢+$106.63

Robin Montgomery$108.9718.5¢-$17.61

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$349.79

Value

$354.08

PnL

+$71.5

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$184.9961.7¢+$75.55

Robin Montgomery$104.816.1¢-$4.05

38791873984189ARB<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$433

Value

$324.89

PnL

-$99.9

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$192.5573.5¢+$23.59

Robin Montgomery$229.2336.9¢-$123.49

VenusianARB<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$341.16

Value

$322.69

PnL

-$18.47

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$178.563.7¢+$49.85

Robin Montgomery$162.6631.9¢-$68.31

Limousin

Janice Tjen

Invested

$263.84

Value

$267.85

PnL

+$4.02

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

tradecraftARB<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$219.71

Value

$233.93

PnL

+$14.22

Record

51%

6512-6276 (12788)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$97.9261.2¢+$35.68

Robin Montgomery$121.7920¢-$21.46

EulhunterCTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$383

Value

$207.21

PnL

-$175.78

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$209.89

Value

$198.75

PnL

-$11.14

Record

51%

2057-1996 (4053)

MrBently

Janice Tjen

Invested

$102.02

Value

$99.38

PnL

-$2.65

Record

52%

614-558 (1172)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$73.86

Value

$73.39

PnL

-$0.47

Record

46%

8769-10462 (19231)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$62.25

Value

$63.07

PnL

+$0.83

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

sentrioCTR<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$90.73

Value

$37.62

PnL

-$53.11

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

0x0f76...dcc9<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$33.48

Value

$33.8

PnL

+$0.32

Record

—

BillBenter2026<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$25.35

Value

$27.13

PnL

+$1.77

Record

57%

19424-14372 (33796)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$7.8

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

9921-8233 (18154)

Research grade

NeutralJanice Tjen at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Janice Tjen

11 of 21 top traders (52%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Janice Tjen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Janice Tjen) and the top 1000 (6 on Robin Montgomery) disagree here.

whaleJanice Tjen 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrJanice Tjen 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedJanice Tjen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Robin Montgomery 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Janice Tjen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.