Luanda: Franziska Sziedat vs Martyna Kubka

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Martyna Kubka (71%) · Martyna Kubka at 100¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 11

Franziska Sziedat<1¢Martyna Kubka>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Martyna Kubka

Consensus Traders

Martyna Kubka 71%

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$368.82

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralMartyna Kubka at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Martyna Kubka

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Franziska Sziedat0%

Martyna Kubka100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Martyna Kubka12 traders

Total Value$17.8K

Total Shares17,840

Combined PnL+$395.72

Franziska Sziedat5 traders

Total Value$234.41

Total Shares4,394

Combined PnL-$26.91

Martyna Kubka — 71%Franziska Sziedat — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Martyna Kubka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Martyna Kubka) and the top 1000 (11 on Franziska Sziedat) disagree here.

whaleFranziska Sziedat 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpMartyna Kubka 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFranziska Sziedat 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMartyna Kubka 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Franziska Sziedat 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Martyna Kubkaavg 96.1¢	$9.9K	$10.2K	+$369.44	52% 1153-1075 (2228)
RN1	Martyna Kubkaavg 95.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$29.74	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
MA MadridTime	Martyna Kubkaavg 96.5¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$32.34	51% 1089-1037 (2126)
LI Limousin	Martyna Kubkaavg 97¢	$987.06	$976.91	-$10.15	54% 1184-1023 (2207)
38 38791873984189	Martyna Kubkaavg 95¢	$837.38	$655.89	+$9.47	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
LI LightParadox	Martyna Kubkaavg 94.6¢	$598.14	$599.17	+$1.03	52% 1140-1038 (2178)
VeryLucky888	Martyna Kubkaavg 93.1¢	$558.86	$552	-$6.86	58% 45420-32909 (78329)
TH thestingsnake	Martyna Kubkaavg 94.6¢	$263.11	$222.93	-$12.03	60% 4339-2910 (7249)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Franziska Sziedatavg 6¢	$237.55	$213.14	-$24.41	50% 20715-20970 (41685)
FL Flaznorp	Martyna Kubkaavg 94.7¢	$215.41	$197.16	-$18.25	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
CI cigarettes<$100	Martyna Kubkaavg 94.7¢	$95.3	$96.4	+$1.1	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Martyna Kubkaavg 94.8¢	$25	$22.94	-$0.76	57% 19070-14108 (33178)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Martyna Kubkaavg 93¢	$13.95	$14.62	+$0.67	52% 8574-7820 (16394)
DV dv-pmCTR	Franziska Sziedatavg 7¢	$161	$12.24	+$0.97	49% 3292-3422 (6714)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Franziska Sziedatavg 4.9¢	$9.75	$5.1	-$4.65	47% 11065-12394 (23459)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Franziska Sziedatavg 6¢	$1.65	$2.19	+$0.55	74% 2420-861 (3281)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Franziska Sziedatavg 5¢	$22	$1.74	+$0.64	54% 6171-5219 (11390)

Venusian

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$9,854.24

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$369.44

Record

52%

1153-1075 (2228)

RN1

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$2,410.59

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$29.74

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

MadridTime

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$1,716.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$32.34

Record

51%

1089-1037 (2126)

Limousin

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$987.06

Value

$976.91

PnL

-$10.15

Record

54%

1184-1023 (2207)

38791873984189

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$837.38

Value

$655.89

PnL

+$9.47

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

LightParadox

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$598.14

Value

$599.17

PnL

+$1.03

Record

52%

1140-1038 (2178)

VeryLucky888

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$558.86

Value

$552

PnL

-$6.86

Record

58%

45420-32909 (78329)

thestingsnake

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$263.11

Value

$222.93

PnL

-$12.03

Record

60%

4339-2910 (7249)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Franziska Sziedat

Invested

$237.55

Value

$213.14

PnL

-$24.41

Record

50%

20715-20970 (41685)

Flaznorp

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$215.41

Value

$197.16

PnL

-$18.25

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

cigarettes<$100

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$95.3

Value

$96.4

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

BillBenter2026<$100

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$25

Value

$22.94

PnL

-$0.76

Record

57%

19070-14108 (33178)

ameisgoat11<$100

Martyna Kubka

Invested

$13.95

Value

$14.62

PnL

+$0.67

Record

52%

8574-7820 (16394)

dv-pmCTR

Franziska Sziedat

Invested

$161

Value

$12.24

PnL

+$0.97

Record

49%

3292-3422 (6714)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Franziska Sziedat

Invested

$9.75

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$4.65

Record

47%

11065-12394 (23459)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Franziska Sziedat

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.55

Record

74%

2420-861 (3281)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Franziska Sziedat

Invested

$22

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.64

Record

54%

6171-5219 (11390)

Research grade

NeutralMartyna Kubka at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Martyna Kubka

12 of 17 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Martyna Kubka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Martyna Kubka) and the top 1000 (11 on Franziska Sziedat) disagree here.

whaleFranziska Sziedat 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpMartyna Kubka 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrFranziska Sziedat 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedMartyna Kubka 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Franziska Sziedat 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Martyna Kubka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.