WTA Finals, Final Stage: Elina Svitolina vs Mirra Andreeva
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mirra Andreeva (22%) · Mirra Andreeva at 71¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
Mirra Andreeva
9
Mirra Andreeva 22%
$7.1K
-$54.56
71¢ → 70.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralMirra Andreeva at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470 | Mirra Andreevaavg 71¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | -$36.23 | — 3-1 (4) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Elina Svitolinaavg 29¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$23.4 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
HI hi774cCTR | Elina Svitolinaavg 29¢ | $338 | $343.82 | +$5.83 | 24% 201-650 (851) |
SE sentrioCTR | Elina Svitolinaavg 29¢ | $246.61 | $242.36 | -$4.25 | 41% 1108-1568 (2676) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Mirra Andreevaavg 70¢ | $35.47 | $35.73 | +$0.25 | 61% 1067-670 (1737) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Elina Svitolinaavg 28.3¢ | $27.07 | $28.2 | +$1.12 | 56% 598-472 (1070) |
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100 | Elina Svitolinaavg 28¢ | $22.01 | $23.19 | +$1.18 | 22% 57-199 (256) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Elina Svitolinaavg 28¢ | $14 | $14.75 | +$0.75 | 52% 199-181 (380) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Elina Svitolinaavg 29¢ | $11.02 | $11.21 | +$0.19 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
Invested
$5,144.57
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$36.23
Record
—
3-1 (4)
Invested
$1,357.49
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$23.4
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
Invested
$338
Value
$343.82
PnL
+$5.83
Record
24%
201-650 (851)
Invested
$246.61
Value
$242.36
PnL
-$4.25
Record
41%
1108-1568 (2676)
Invested
$35.47
Value
$35.73
PnL
+$0.25
Record
61%
1067-670 (1737)
Invested
$27.07
Value
$28.2
PnL
+$1.12
Record
56%
598-472 (1070)
Invested
$22.01
Value
$23.19
PnL
+$1.18
Record
22%
57-199 (256)
Invested
$14
Value
$14.75
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
199-181 (380)
Invested
$11.02
Value
$11.21
PnL
+$0.19
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470
Mirra Andreeva — $5.1K
Flaznorp
CTRElina Svitolina — $1.3K
hi774c
CTRElina Svitolina — $343.82
sentrio
CTRElina Svitolina — $242.36
darkumbreon88
Mirra Andreeva — $35.73
LeLynxMalynx
CTRElina Svitolina — $28.2
Notradecopy
CTRElina Svitolina — $23.19
Eulhunter
CTRElina Svitolina — $14.75
Pan9X
CTRElina Svitolina — $11.21