Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Aliaksandra Sasnovich, while the market favors Maria Sakkari (60%). 10 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Maria Sakkari

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Aliaksandra Sasnovich (77%) · Aliaksandra Sasnovich at 41¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 13

Aliaksandra Sasnovich41¢Maria Sakkari59¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Consensus Traders

Aliaksandra Sasnovich 77%

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$33

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 40.5¢

-4% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateAliaksandra Sasnovich at 41%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Maria Sakkari 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Aliaksandra Sasnovich41%

Maria Sakkari60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aliaksandra Sasnovich10 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares22,952

Combined PnL+$31.73

Maria Sakkari3 traders

Total Value$156.87

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$1.27

Aliaksandra Sasnovich — 77%Maria Sakkari — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAliaksandra Sasnovich 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpAliaksandra Sasnovich 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrAliaksandra Sasnovich 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedAliaksandra Sasnovich 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aliaksandra Sasnovich 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$6.6K	$6.4K	+$78.11	50% 4446-4373 (8819)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$723.55	$706.32	-$17.23	61% 14400-9333 (23733)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$665.28	$649.44	+$7.92	51% 26028-24687 (50715)
VeryLucky888CTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 41.8¢	$621.27	$601.77	-$19.5	58% 46840-33772 (80612)
GC GC-PCTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$357	$348.5	-$8.5	64% 10024-5638 (15662)
NM NM-PCTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$348.81	$340.5	-$8.3	64% 9984-5568 (15552)
38 38791873984189CTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$168	$164	-$2	48% 61419-66265 (127684)
SE sentrioCTR	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$147.73	$144.22	+$1.76	50% 25943-25631 (51574)
0X 0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513<$100	Maria Sakkariavg 59.5¢	$79.8	$79.73	-$0.07	54% 325-278 (603)
JA JAMJAMJAM4<$100	Maria Sakkariavg 56¢	$64.2	$65.34	+$1.14	55% 3738-3057 (6795)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 42¢	$42	$41.5	-$0.5	54% 6296-5358 (11654)
PA Pan9X<$100	Maria Sakkariavg 58¢	$11.6	$11.8	+$0.2	54% 9826-8264 (18090)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Aliaksandra Sasnovichavg 41¢	$2.05	$2.03	-$0.02	52% 8794-7996 (16790)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$6,561.27

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$78.11

Record

50%

4446-4373 (8819)

LilybaeumCTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$723.55

Value

$706.32

PnL

-$17.23

Record

61%

14400-9333 (23733)

FlaznorpCTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$665.28

Value

$649.44

PnL

+$7.92

Record

51%

26028-24687 (50715)

VeryLucky888CTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$621.27

Value

$601.77

PnL

-$19.5

Record

58%

46840-33772 (80612)

GC-PCTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$357

Value

$348.5

PnL

-$8.5

Record

64%

10024-5638 (15662)

NM-PCTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$348.81

Value

$340.5

PnL

-$8.3

Record

64%

9984-5568 (15552)

38791873984189CTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$168

Value

$164

PnL

-$2

Record

48%

61419-66265 (127684)

sentrioCTR

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$147.73

Value

$144.22

PnL

+$1.76

Record

50%

25943-25631 (51574)

0x2cE8505aA641791EB8460f6ac6bf5C0511E34527-1746735481513<$100

Maria Sakkari

Invested

$79.8

Value

$79.73

PnL

-$0.07

Record

54%

325-278 (603)

JAMJAMJAM4<$100

Maria Sakkari

Invested

$64.2

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$1.14

Record

55%

3738-3057 (6795)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$42

Value

$41.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

6296-5358 (11654)

Pan9X<$100

Maria Sakkari

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

54%

9826-8264 (18090)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

8794-7996 (16790)

Research grade

Research candidateAliaksandra Sasnovich at 41%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

10 of 13 top traders (77%)Underdog side (market favors Maria Sakkari 60%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAliaksandra Sasnovich 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpAliaksandra Sasnovich 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrAliaksandra Sasnovich 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedAliaksandra Sasnovich 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aliaksandra Sasnovich 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aliaksandra Sasnovich wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.