Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Carole Monnet, while the market favors Laura Samson (60%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cali: Laura Samson vs Carole Monnet

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Carole Monnet (67%) · Carole Monnet at 41¢ · $646 held · ends Nov 11

Laura Samson60¢Carole Monnet40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Carole Monnet

Consensus Traders

Carole Monnet 67%

Total Value

$646.06

Combined PnL

$27.43

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 40.5¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCarole Monnet at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carole Monnet

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Laura Samson 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Laura Samson60%

Carole Monnet41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carole Monnet6 traders

Total Value$470.01

Total Shares1,206

Combined PnL+$30.79

Laura Samson3 traders

Total Value$176.05

Total Shares283

Combined PnL-$3.36

Carole Monnet — 67%Laura Samson — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Carole Monnet. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Laura Samson) and the top 1000 (8 on Carole Monnet) disagree here.

whaleCarole Monnet 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpLaura Samson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCarole Monnet 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLaura Samson 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Carole Monnet 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Carole Monnetavg 36.2¢	$295.18	$321.8	+$26.62	50% 524-521 (1045)
FL Flaznorp	Laura Samsonavg 63¢	$117.81	$117.81	+$0	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 35.1¢	$52.68	$55.36	+$2.68	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
0xheavy888<$100	Laura Samsonavg 64.5¢	$51.6	$48.4	-$3.2	56% 7713-6183 (13896)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 39¢	$40.11	$41.65	+$1.54	48% 59224-63218 (122442)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 36.7¢	$31.49	$31.64	+$0.15	61% 14032-9038 (23070)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 39¢	$17.55	$16.61	+$0.23	49% 14322-14999 (29321)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Laura Samsonavg 64¢	$10	$9.84	-$0.16	74% 2420-861 (3281)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 42.2¢	$3.38	$2.95	-$0.42	52% 1153-1075 (2228)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$295.18

Value

$321.8

PnL

+$26.62

Record

50%

524-521 (1045)

Flaznorp

Laura Samson

Invested

$117.81

Value

$117.81

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$52.68

Value

$55.36

PnL

+$2.68

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

0xheavy888<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$51.6

Value

$48.4

PnL

-$3.2

Record

56%

7713-6183 (13896)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$40.11

Value

$41.65

PnL

+$1.54

Record

48%

59224-63218 (122442)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$31.49

Value

$31.64

PnL

+$0.15

Record

61%

14032-9038 (23070)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$17.55

Value

$16.61

PnL

+$0.23

Record

49%

14322-14999 (29321)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$10

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$0.16

Record

74%

2420-861 (3281)

VenusianCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$3.38

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.42

Record

52%

1153-1075 (2228)

Research grade

NeutralCarole Monnet at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Carole Monnet

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Laura Samson 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Carole Monnet. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Laura Samson) and the top 1000 (8 on Carole Monnet) disagree here.

whaleCarole Monnet 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpLaura Samson 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCarole Monnet 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedLaura Samson 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Carole Monnet 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carole Monnet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.