Sopo: Laura Samson vs Irene Burillo Escorihuela

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Laura Samson (47%) · Laura Samson at 64¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 19

Laura Samson64¢Irene Burillo Escorihuela36¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Laura Samson

Consensus Traders

Laura Samson 47%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

-$142.48

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 63.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralLaura Samson at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Samson

7 of 15 top traders (47%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Laura Samson64%

Irene Burillo Escorihuela37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Laura Samson7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,563

Combined PnL-$2.11

Irene Burillo Escorihuela8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,309

Combined PnL-$140.37

Laura Samson — 47%Irene Burillo Escorihuela — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 51¢	$7.1K	$7.5K	+$451.15	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 51¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$37.22
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 43¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$413.93
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 75.1¢	$4.3K	$3.6K	-$662.47	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 75.1¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$67.97
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 42¢	$1.6K	$884.22	-$730.44
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 63.7¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$250.88	50% 3540-3500 (7040)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 63.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$20.26
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 45.5¢	$1.2K	$964.32	-$271.14
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 54.8¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	+$318.84	33% 553-1132 (1685)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 54.8¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$160.01
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 38¢	$868.82	$880.25	+$158.83
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 69.2¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$238.41	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 69.2¢	$1.2K	$935.33	-$297.82
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 42.2¢	$472.15	$531.57	+$59.42
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 54.5¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	+$2.46	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 43.7¢	$505.82	$561.66	-$4.16
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 54.5¢	$509.17	$480.79	+$6.62
TH thestingsnake	Laura Samsonavg 67.8¢	$638.48	$563.38	-$57.72	30% 171-397 (568)
MA MadridTime	Laura Samsonavg 61.9¢	$436.07	$454.54	+$18.47	33% 558-1109 (1667)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 62¢	$678.05	$414.97	+$8.48	27% 157-430 (587)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 62¢	$242.46	$301.12	+$56.98
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 42.6¢	$210.95	$113.85	-$48.5
TH thirdt1meCTR	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 37.2¢	$740.68	$372.61	-$51.53	45% 157-194 (351)
38 38791873984189CTR	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 46.4¢	$666.89	$339.13	-$21.6	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 38.5¢	$383.53	$326.93	-$56.6	56% 3900-3066 (6966)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 69.1¢	$188.95	$210.61	+$21.66
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 38.5¢	$194.58	$116.32	-$78.26
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 47.9¢	$872.18	$274.47	-$66.44	48% 335-369 (704)
LI Limousin	Laura Samsonavg 62.9¢	$203.52	$198.09	-$5.43	33% 534-1108 (1642)
VE Venusian	Laura Samsonavg 51¢	$154.77	$195.74	+$40.97	32% 538-1125 (1663)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Laura Samsonavg 65.8¢	$227.07	$183.3	+$20.17	36% 94-169 (263)
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 65.8¢	$103.97	$97.23	-$6.76
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 31¢	$69.34	$86.07	+$26.93
EU Eulhunter	Laura Samsonavg 51¢	$163.71	$165.32	+$1.6	51% 139-136 (275)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 40.5¢	$37.54	$35.38	-$2.16	43% 690-922 (1612)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 35.2¢	$23.97	$14.87	+$1.48	41% 251-365 (616)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 33¢	$9.9	$10.65	+$0.75	45% 166-201 (367)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Laura Samsonavg 73¢	$9.99	$10.54	+$0.55	46% 97-112 (209)
0xheavy888<$100	Laura Samsonavg 73¢	$8.03	$7.48	-$0.55	54% 274-237 (511)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 27¢	$4.05	$3.45	-$0.6	52% 352-328 (680)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 27¢	$1.8	$1.53	-$0.27	37% 534-922 (1456)

RN1ARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$7,078.73

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$451.15

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$3,842.5551¢+$37.22

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$3,236.1843¢+$413.93

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$4,295.64

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$662.47

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$2,680.9875.1¢+$67.97

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$1,614.6642¢-$730.44

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$2,801.82

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$250.88

Record

50%

3540-3500 (7040)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$1,566.3563.7¢+$20.26

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$1,235.4745.5¢-$271.14

LightParadoxARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$2,684.16

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$318.84

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$1,306.1354.8¢+$160.01

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$868.8238¢+$158.83

FlaznorpARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$1,705.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$238.41

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$1,233.1569.2¢-$297.82

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$472.1542.2¢+$59.42

NotJumpARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$1,506.09

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$2.46

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$505.8243.7¢-$4.16

Laura Samson$509.1754.5¢+$6.62

thestingsnake

Laura Samson

Invested

$638.48

Value

$563.38

PnL

-$57.72

Record

30%

171-397 (568)

MadridTime

Laura Samson

Invested

$436.07

Value

$454.54

PnL

+$18.47

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

babybellsARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$678.05

Value

$414.97

PnL

+$8.48

Record

27%

157-430 (587)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$242.4662¢+$56.98

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$210.9542.6¢-$48.5

thirdt1meCTR

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$740.68

Value

$372.61

PnL

-$51.53

Record

45%

157-194 (351)

38791873984189CTR

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$666.89

Value

$339.13

PnL

-$21.6

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$383.53

Value

$326.93

PnL

-$56.6

Record

56%

3900-3066 (6966)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$188.9569.1¢+$21.66

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$194.5838.5¢-$78.26

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$872.18

Value

$274.47

PnL

-$66.44

Record

48%

335-369 (704)

Limousin

Laura Samson

Invested

$203.52

Value

$198.09

PnL

-$5.43

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Venusian

Laura Samson

Invested

$154.77

Value

$195.74

PnL

+$40.97

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$227.07

Value

$183.3

PnL

+$20.17

Record

36%

94-169 (263)

Both legs:

Laura Samson$103.9765.8¢-$6.76

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$69.3431¢+$26.93

Eulhunter

Laura Samson

Invested

$163.71

Value

$165.32

PnL

+$1.6

Record

51%

139-136 (275)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$37.54

Value

$35.38

PnL

-$2.16

Record

43%

690-922 (1612)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$23.97

Value

$14.87

PnL

+$1.48

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

ojgCTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$0.75

Record

45%

166-201 (367)

glennyorkshire<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.55

Record

46%

97-112 (209)

0xheavy888<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$8.03

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.55

Record

54%

274-237 (511)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

352-328 (680)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.27

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

Research grade

NeutralLaura Samson at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Samson

7 of 15 top traders (47%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Laura Samson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.