Sopo: Laura Samson vs Sofia Costoulas

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Laura Samson (71%) · Laura Samson at 81¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 18

Laura Samson81¢Sofia Costoulas19¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Laura Samson

Consensus Traders

Laura Samson 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 81¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLaura Samson at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Samson

10 of 14 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Laura Samson81%

Sofia Costoulas19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Laura Samson10 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares11,207

Combined PnL-$699.93

Sofia Costoulas4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares8,948

Combined PnL-$714.77

Laura Samson — 71%Sofia Costoulas — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Laura Samson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Laura Samson) and the top 1000 (13 on Sofia Costoulas) disagree here.

sharpLaura Samson 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSofia Costoulas 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedLaura Samson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sofia Costoulas 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Laura Samsonavg 78.9¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	-$391.61	57% 4029-3048 (7077)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Laura Samsonavg 79¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$371.67	53% 1811-1620 (3431)
65 6512395314597884	Laura Samsonavg 68¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$16.35	50% 3292-3247 (6539)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Sofia Costoulasavg 21.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$151	30% 375-875 (1250)
└ Sofia Costoulas leg	Sofia Costoulasavg 21.1¢	$899.45	$746.64	-$152.81
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 82¢	$297.89	$299.71	+$1.82
LI LightParadoxCTR	Sofia Costoulasavg 21.9¢	$1.1K	$967.85	-$180.26	30% 378-869 (1247)
VE VenusianCTR	Sofia Costoulasavg 32¢	$1.2K	$646.01	-$535.26	31% 385-869 (1254)
HV HVAB	Laura Samsonavg 67¢	$653.24	$454.93	+$77	39% 17-27 (44)
TH thirdt1me	Laura Samsonavg 78.5¢	$365.78	$297.83	-$3.95	42% 111-156 (267)
BA babybells	Laura Samsonavg 68¢	$282.2	$286.35	+$4.15	23% 122-409 (531)
TH thestingsnake	Laura Samsonavg 72¢	$226.95	$217.35	-$9.6	25% 124-374 (498)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Sofia Costoulasavg 33¢	$313.65	$194.25	-$93.4	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
└ Sofia Costoulas leg	Sofia Costoulasavg 33¢	$202.95	$107.63	-$102.32
└ Laura Samson leg	Laura Samsonavg 74¢	$77.7	$86.63	+$8.92
38 38791873984189	Laura Samsonavg 79¢	$154.05	$134.55	-$19.5	48% 1352-1466 (2818)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Laura Samsonavg 74.6¢	$48.04	$46.48	-$1.55	56% 3850-3020 (6870)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Laura Samsonavg 80.2¢	$16.05	$16.5	+$0.45	22% 140-490 (630)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sofia Costoulasavg 28¢	$5.6	$6.2	+$0.6	48% 667-712 (1379)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Sofia Costoulasavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.55	+$0.15	32% 291-617 (908)

RN1

Laura Samson

Invested

$3,108.3

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$391.61

Record

57%

4029-3048 (7077)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Laura Samson

Invested

$2,936.17

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$371.67

Record

53%

1811-1620 (3431)

6512395314597884

Laura Samson

Invested

$1,111.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$16.35

Record

50%

3292-3247 (6539)

LimousinARB<$100

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$1,197.34

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$151

Record

30%

375-875 (1250)

Both legs:

Sofia Costoulas$899.4521.1¢-$152.81

Laura Samson$297.8982¢+$1.82

LightParadoxCTR

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$1,148.11

Value

$967.85

PnL

-$180.26

Record

30%

378-869 (1247)

VenusianCTR

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$1,181.27

Value

$646.01

PnL

-$535.26

Record

31%

385-869 (1254)

HVAB

Laura Samson

Invested

$653.24

Value

$454.93

PnL

+$77

Record

39%

17-27 (44)

thirdt1me

Laura Samson

Invested

$365.78

Value

$297.83

PnL

-$3.95

Record

42%

111-156 (267)

babybells

Laura Samson

Invested

$282.2

Value

$286.35

PnL

+$4.15

Record

23%

122-409 (531)

thestingsnake

Laura Samson

Invested

$226.95

Value

$217.35

PnL

-$9.6

Record

25%

124-374 (498)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$313.65

Value

$194.25

PnL

-$93.4

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

Both legs:

Sofia Costoulas$202.9533¢-$102.32

Laura Samson$77.774¢+$8.92

38791873984189

Laura Samson

Invested

$154.05

Value

$134.55

PnL

-$19.5

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$48.04

Value

$46.48

PnL

-$1.55

Record

56%

3850-3020 (6870)

BillBenter2026<$100

Laura Samson

Invested

$16.05

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

22%

140-490 (630)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$5.6

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

667-712 (1379)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Sofia Costoulas

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

32%

291-617 (908)

Research grade

NeutralLaura Samson at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Samson

10 of 14 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on Laura Samson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Laura Samson) and the top 1000 (13 on Sofia Costoulas) disagree here.

sharpLaura Samson 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSofia Costoulas 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedLaura Samson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sofia Costoulas 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Laura Samson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.