Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mirra Andreeva, while the market favors Aryna Sabalenka (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mirra Andreeva (67%) · Mirra Andreeva at 50¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Aryna Sabalenka51¢Mirra Andreeva49¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mirra Andreeva

Consensus Traders

Mirra Andreeva 67%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$76.67

Smart Money Entry

46.9¢ → 49.5¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMirra Andreeva at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mirra Andreeva

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Aryna Sabalenka 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aryna Sabalenka51%

Mirra Andreeva50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mirra Andreeva4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,532

Combined PnL+$96.35

Aryna Sabalenka2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,397

Combined PnL-$19.68

Mirra Andreeva — 67%Aryna Sabalenka — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Mirra Andreeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMirra Andreeva 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mirra Andreeva 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Mirra Andreevaavg 46.9¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$83.99	1% 3-200 (203)
FL Flaznorp	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 53¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$19.68	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
SE sentrio	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 52¢	$223.31	$223.31	+$0	32% 184-398 (582)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Mirra Andreevaavg 45.7¢	$119.71	$128.24	+$8.53	38% 215-345 (560)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Mirra Andreevaavg 48¢	$102.78	$104.92	+$2.14	26% 234-663 (897)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 46¢	$25.96	$27.66	+$1.69	61% 899-577 (1476)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,875.93

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$83.99

Record

3-200 (203)

Flaznorp

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$1,043.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$19.68

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

sentrio

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$223.31

Value

$223.31

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$119.71

Value

$128.24

PnL

+$8.53

Record

38%

215-345 (560)

LightParadoxCTR

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$102.78

Value

$104.92

PnL

+$2.14

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$25.96

Value

$27.66

PnL

+$1.69

Record

61%

899-577 (1476)

Research grade

NeutralMirra Andreeva at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mirra Andreeva

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Aryna Sabalenka 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Mirra Andreeva. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMirra Andreeva 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Mirra Andreeva 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mirra Andreeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.