Set Handicap: Mirra Andreeva (-1.5) vs Jessica Pegula (+1.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Jessica Pegula (64%) · Jessica Pegula at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 21

Mirra Andreeva48¢Jessica Pegula52¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jessica Pegula

Consensus Traders

Jessica Pegula 64%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$30.7

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 52¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralJessica Pegula at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mirra Andreeva48%

Jessica Pegula52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mirra Andreeva4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,679

Combined PnL+$41.38

Jessica Pegula7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,074

Combined PnL-$10.68

Mirra Andreeva — 36%Jessica Pegula — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Jessica Pegula. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJessica Pegula 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Mirra Andreevaavg 47¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$62.06	60% 18-12 (30)
OM omnibus-076daa	Jessica Pegulaavg 52.9¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$35.72	46% 497-591 (1088)
VeryLucky888	Jessica Pegulaavg 51.4¢	$631.79	$650.3	+$18.51	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
00 0000.CTR	Mirra Andreevaavg 48.9¢	$436	$419.07	-$16.93	37% 16-27 (43)
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Jessica Pegulaavg 51¢	$300	$302.94	+$2.94	29% 11-27 (38)
CR Crazyboy77CTR	Mirra Andreevaavg 49¢	$294	$291	-$3	13% 15-103 (118)
VI vibing123	Jessica Pegulaavg 51¢	$165.75	$167.38	+$1.63	62% 1138-702 (1840)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 50¢	$51.62	$53.17	+$1.55	55% 474-384 (858)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 50¢	$24.99	$24.24	-$0.75	35% 267-486 (753)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 52¢	$20.8	$21.17	+$0.37	43% 182-242 (424)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 51¢	$5.1	$5.15	+$0.05	41% 700-1011 (1711)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$1,944.6

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$62.06

Record

60%

18-12 (30)

omnibus-076daa

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$2,000.49

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$35.72

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

VeryLucky888

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$631.79

Value

$650.3

PnL

+$18.51

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

0000.CTR

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$436

Value

$419.07

PnL

-$16.93

Record

37%

16-27 (43)

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$300

Value

$302.94

PnL

+$2.94

Record

29%

11-27 (38)

Crazyboy77CTR

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$294

Value

$291

PnL

-$3

Record

13%

15-103 (118)

vibing123

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$165.75

Value

$167.38

PnL

+$1.63

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$51.62

Value

$53.17

PnL

+$1.55

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$24.99

Value

$24.24

PnL

-$0.75

Record

35%

267-486 (753)

NatoAlfista<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$20.8

Value

$21.17

PnL

+$0.37

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

ameisgoat11<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

700-1011 (1711)

Research grade

NeutralJessica Pegula at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Jessica Pegula. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJessica Pegula 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jessica Pegula wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.