Cali: Despina Papamichail vs Renata Zarazua

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Renata Zarazua (67%) · Renata Zarazua at 82¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11

Despina Papamichail19¢Renata Zarazua81¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Renata Zarazua

Consensus Traders

Renata Zarazua 67%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$77.45

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralRenata Zarazua at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Renata Zarazua

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Despina Papamichail19%

Renata Zarazua82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Renata Zarazua10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,683

Combined PnL+$79.52

Despina Papamichail5 traders

Total Value$96.48

Total Shares613

Combined PnL-$2.07

Renata Zarazua — 67%Despina Papamichail — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Renata Zarazuaavg 80¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$90.01	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
VeryLucky888	Renata Zarazuaavg 82¢	$678.6	$674.46	-$4.14	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
LI LightParadox	Renata Zarazuaavg 87.7¢	$582.33	$560.17	-$22.17	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
FL Flaznorp	Renata Zarazuaavg 81¢	$528.93	$535.46	+$6.53	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
1L 1lovejump	Renata Zarazuaavg 86.6¢	$454.99	$446.39	+$11.04	52% 736-673 (1409)
MA MadridTime	Renata Zarazuaavg 91.4¢	$202.93	$203.13	+$0.2	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
38 38791873984189	Renata Zarazuaavg 82¢	$245.07	$200.94	-$2.6	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 13.6¢	$49.26	$49.15	-$0.11	60% 4348-2912 (7260)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 80.4¢	$47.81	$49.09	+$1.28	54% 6178-5224 (11402)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 16.7¢	$26.26	$25.99	-$0.27	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 14.6¢	$20.52	$18.97	-$1.55	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 84.3¢	$18.54	$17.93	-$0.61	57% 19072-14109 (33181)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Renata Zarazuaavg 82¢	$4.1	$4.07	-$0.03	52% 8576-7821 (16397)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 15.6¢	$1.56	$1.45	-$0.11	59% 31860-22491 (54351)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 19¢	$0.95	$0.93	-$0.02	74% 2421-862 (3283)

RN1

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$2,880.32

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$90.01

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

VeryLucky888

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$678.6

Value

$674.46

PnL

-$4.14

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

LightParadox

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$582.33

Value

$560.17

PnL

-$22.17

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

Flaznorp

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$528.93

Value

$535.46

PnL

+$6.53

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

1lovejump

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$454.99

Value

$446.39

PnL

+$11.04

Record

52%

736-673 (1409)

MadridTime

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$202.93

Value

$203.13

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

38791873984189

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$245.07

Value

$200.94

PnL

-$2.6

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$49.26

Value

$49.15

PnL

-$0.11

Record

60%

4348-2912 (7260)

Eulhunter<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$47.81

Value

$49.09

PnL

+$1.28

Record

54%

6178-5224 (11402)

LimousinCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$26.26

Value

$25.99

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

VenusianCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$20.52

Value

$18.97

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

BillBenter2026<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$18.54

Value

$17.93

PnL

-$0.61

Record

57%

19072-14109 (33181)

ameisgoat11<$100

Renata Zarazua

Invested

$4.1

Value

$4.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

8576-7821 (16397)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$0.11

Record

59%

31860-22491 (54351)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

74%

2421-862 (3283)

Research grade

NeutralRenata Zarazua at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Renata Zarazua

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Renata Zarazua wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.