WTA Finals, Final Stage: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Linda Noskova (22%) · Linda Noskova at 62¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 21

Linda Noskova62¢Elina Svitolina38¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Linda Noskova

Consensus Traders

Linda Noskova 22%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$37.49

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLinda Noskova at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Linda Noskova

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Linda Noskova62%

Elina Svitolina39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Linda Noskova2 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares7,839

Combined PnL+$39.19

Elina Svitolina7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares7,930

Combined PnL-$1.7

Linda Noskova — 22%Elina Svitolina — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Linda Noskova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLinda Noskova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrElina Svitolina 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22f	Linda Noskovaavg 60¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$34.98	— 2-2 (4)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 40¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	19% 44-190 (234)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 40¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	51% 36-34 (70)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 39.4¢	$524.45	$525.75	+$1.29	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Linda Noskovaavg 61¢	$514.2	$518.41	+$4.21	53% 536-466 (1002)
VeryLucky888CTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 38.6¢	$436.16	$435.5	-$0.66	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
SE sentrioCTR	Elina Svitolinaavg 39¢	$119.39	$117.86	-$1.53	43% 920-1244 (2164)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 39¢	$42.12	$41.58	-$0.54	56% 426-340 (766)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Elina Svitolinaavg 40¢	$21.44	$21.17	-$0.27	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

0x8e83fae02e603cc2860638315f1c161fde5ab22f

Linda Noskova

Invested

$4,197.36

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$34.98

Record

—

2-2 (4)

NotradecopyCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

19%

44-190 (234)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

36-34 (70)

FlaznorpCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$524.45

Value

$525.75

PnL

+$1.29

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Linda Noskova

Invested

$514.2

Value

$518.41

PnL

+$4.21

Record

53%

536-466 (1002)

VeryLucky888CTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$436.16

Value

$435.5

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

sentrioCTR

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$119.39

Value

$117.86

PnL

-$1.53

Record

43%

920-1244 (2164)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$42.12

Value

$41.58

PnL

-$0.54

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Elina Svitolina

Invested

$21.44

Value

$21.17

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

NeutralLinda Noskova at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Linda Noskova

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Linda Noskova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperLinda Noskova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrElina Svitolina 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Elina Svitolina 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Linda Noskova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.