Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Justina Mikulskyte, while the market favors Tiphanie Lemaitre (59%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Luanda: Justina Mikulskyte vs Tiphanie Lemaitre

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Justina Mikulskyte (22%) · Justina Mikulskyte at 42¢ · $617 held · ends Nov 11

Justina Mikulskyte42¢Tiphanie Lemaitre58¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Justina Mikulskyte

Consensus Traders

Justina Mikulskyte 22%

Total Value

$617.5

Combined PnL

$23.35

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 41.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralJustina Mikulskyte at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Justina Mikulskyte

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Tiphanie Lemaitre 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Justina Mikulskyte42%

Tiphanie Lemaitre59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Justina Mikulskyte2 traders

Total Value$209.54

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$2.43

Tiphanie Lemaitre7 traders

Total Value$407.95

Total Shares697

Combined PnL+$25.78

Justina Mikulskyte — 22%Tiphanie Lemaitre — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Justina Mikulskyte. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJustina Mikulskyte 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpTiphanie Lemaitre 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTiphanie Lemaitre 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Tiphanie Lemaitre 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Justina Mikulskyteavg 43.2¢	$219.12	$207.87	-$2.54	46% 8561-10189 (18750)
38 38791873984189	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 58¢	$351	$138.06	+$1.18	48% 60671-65334 (126005)
OM omnibus-076daa	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 57.5¢	$169.54	$99.18	+$1.77	50% 21082-21326 (42408)
LI Limousin<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 48.4¢	$72.84	$87.16	+$14.32	53% 1393-1240 (2633)
LI LightParadox<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 49.5¢	$50.44	$59.02	+$8.57	52% 1348-1268 (2616)
PA Pan9X<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 58¢	$20	$11.7	+$0.1	49% 4422-4622 (9044)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 59¢	$9.99	$9.91	-$0.08	72% 2469-944 (3413)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Tiphanie Lemaitreavg 60¢	$5	$2.93	-$0.08	52% 8724-7942 (16666)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Justina Mikulskyteavg 40¢	$1.63	$1.67	+$0.1	51% 25532-24237 (49769)

nigiri99CTR

Justina Mikulskyte

Invested

$219.12

Value

$207.87

PnL

-$2.54

Record

46%

8561-10189 (18750)

38791873984189

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$351

Value

$138.06

PnL

+$1.18

Record

48%

60671-65334 (126005)

omnibus-076daa

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$169.54

Value

$99.18

PnL

+$1.77

Record

50%

21082-21326 (42408)

Limousin<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$72.84

Value

$87.16

PnL

+$14.32

Record

53%

1393-1240 (2633)

LightParadox<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$50.44

Value

$59.02

PnL

+$8.57

Record

52%

1348-1268 (2616)

Pan9X<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$20

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

4422-4622 (9044)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.91

PnL

-$0.08

Record

72%

2469-944 (3413)

ameisgoat11<$100

Tiphanie Lemaitre

Invested

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

8724-7942 (16666)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Justina Mikulskyte

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.1

Record

51%

25532-24237 (49769)

Research grade

NeutralJustina Mikulskyte at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Justina Mikulskyte

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Tiphanie Lemaitre 59%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Justina Mikulskyte. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJustina Mikulskyte 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpTiphanie Lemaitre 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTiphanie Lemaitre 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Tiphanie Lemaitre 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Justina Mikulskyte wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.