Sopo: Tatjana Maria vs Luisina Giovannini

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Luisina Giovannini (63%) · Luisina Giovannini at 67¢ · $71K held · ends Nov 17

Tatjana Maria34¢Luisina Giovannini66¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luisina Giovannini

Consensus Traders

Luisina Giovannini 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$71.3K

Combined PnL

$-4.7K

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 66.5¢

+16% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuisina Giovannini at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luisina Giovannini

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Tatjana Maria34%

Luisina Giovannini67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luisina Giovannini10 traders

Total Value$39.1K

Total Shares69,837

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Tatjana Maria6 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares41,527

Combined PnL$-3.6K

Luisina Giovannini — 63%Tatjana Maria — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Luisina Giovanniniavg 58¢	$36.9K	$35.0K	$-1.9K	46% 126-145 (271)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 51.2¢	$17.8K	$17.9K	+$87.79	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 51.2¢	$9.4K	$12.2K	+$2.8K
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 49.4¢	$8.5K	$5.7K	$-2.7K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Tatjana Mariaavg 42¢	$12.0K	$9.5K	$-2.4K	53% 6776-6000 (12776)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Tatjana Mariaavg 44.5¢	$5.2K	$3.4K	-$867.21	58% 237-173 (410)
LI Limousin	Luisina Giovanniniavg 53.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$295.12	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
38 38791873984189CTR	Tatjana Mariaavg 43.3¢	$2.3K	$1.3K	-$268.18	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
TH thestingsnake	Luisina Giovanniniavg 50.2¢	$635.17	$841.46	+$206.29	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
1L 1lovejump	Luisina Giovanniniavg 44.1¢	$1.0K	$443.12	+$12.82	53% 861-758 (1619)
tradecraft	Luisina Giovanniniavg 40.8¢	$237	$386.22	+$149.22	51% 6933-6586 (13519)
LI LightParadox	Luisina Giovanniniavg 66.1¢	$343.93	$345.82	+$1.89	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
EU Eulhunter	Luisina Giovanniniavg 44.3¢	$92.79	$139.44	+$46.65	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
MA MadridTime	Luisina Giovanniniavg 37.2¢	$141.36	$138.88	-$2.48	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
machinelearned<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 45.9¢	$37.79	$43.24	+$5.45	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
VE Venusian<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 38.2¢	$25.71	$37.91	+$12.2	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 44¢	$30.91	$25.02	-$5.89	52% 6205-5726 (11931)
RN1CTR<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 41¢	$15.27	$12.48	-$2.79	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 50¢	$5	$3.35	-$1.65	51% 4008-3805 (7813)

robustmst

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$36,856.18

Value

$35.0K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

46%

126-145 (271)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$17,843.61

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$87.79

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$9,371.351.2¢+$2.8K

Tatjana Maria$8,472.3149.4¢$-2.7K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$11,953.58

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

53%

6776-6000 (12776)

thirdt1meCTR

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$5,199.36

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$867.21

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

Limousin

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$1,506.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$295.12

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

38791873984189CTR

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$2,275

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$268.18

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

thestingsnake

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$635.17

Value

$841.46

PnL

+$206.29

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

1lovejump

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$1,018.59

Value

$443.12

PnL

+$12.82

Record

53%

861-758 (1619)

tradecraft

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$237

Value

$386.22

PnL

+$149.22

Record

51%

6933-6586 (13519)

LightParadox

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$343.93

Value

$345.82

PnL

+$1.89

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

Eulhunter

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$92.79

Value

$139.44

PnL

+$46.65

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

MadridTime

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$141.36

Value

$138.88

PnL

-$2.48

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

machinelearned<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$37.79

Value

$43.24

PnL

+$5.45

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

Venusian<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$25.71

Value

$37.91

PnL

+$12.2

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$30.91

Value

$25.02

PnL

-$5.89

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

RN1CTR<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$15.27

Value

$12.48

PnL

-$2.79

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

ojgCTR<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$1.65

Record

51%

4008-3805 (7813)

Research grade

NeutralLuisina Giovannini at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luisina Giovannini

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luisina Giovannini wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.