Sopo: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia

25 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Elizabeth Mandlik (71%) · Elizabeth Mandlik at 76¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 19

Elizabeth Mandlik76¢Andrea Lazaro Garcia24¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elizabeth Mandlik

Consensus Traders

Elizabeth Mandlik 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 76¢

+19% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

25 of 35 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Elizabeth Mandlik76%

Andrea Lazaro Garcia24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizabeth Mandlik25 traders

Total Value$26.2K

Total Shares32,543

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Andrea Lazaro Garcia10 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares18,870

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Elizabeth Mandlik — 71%Andrea Lazaro Garcia — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Elizabeth Mandlik. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpElizabeth Mandlik 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrElizabeth Mandlik 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedElizabeth Mandlik 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Elizabeth Mandlik 70% · 33

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 70¢	$5.2K	$6.1K	+$893.66	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
65 6512395314597884	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 67.5¢	$5.2K	$5.8K	+$574.88	50% 3540-3500 (7040)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.7¢	$3.1K	$2.6K	-$504.16	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 61.8¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$196.56
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.7¢	$1.6K	$887.13	-$700.72
LI LightParadox	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 77¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$134.38	33% 553-1132 (1685)
TRCM	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$724.79	12% 61-439 (500)
SU suntori	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 72.8¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$120.47	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 31.5¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	-$634.04	51% 2067-1978 (4045)
TH thirdt1me	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 71.3¢	$3.0K	$1.5K	+$45.08	45% 157-194 (351)
VeryLucky888	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 42.6¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$575.43	52% 761-712 (1473)
BA babybells	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 67.6¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$31.5	27% 157-430 (587)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 51.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$3.31	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 51.9¢	$607.53	$819.96	+$212.43
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 44.3¢	$366.25	$248.03	-$209.12
00 0000.CTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 57.6¢	$2.4K	$952.84	$-1.5K	32% 10-21 (31)
TH thestingsnake	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52.3¢	$662.9	$691.38	+$231.52	30% 171-397 (568)
VE VenusianCTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 22.7¢	$650.19	$645.01	-$5.18	32% 538-1125 (1663)
alpheclabs2CTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 55.5¢	$1.0K	$553.2	-$469.46	45% 192-232 (424)
38 38791873984189	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 46.7¢	$360.9	$540.4	+$179.5	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 70.5¢	$489.89	$501.39	+$11.5	56% 3900-3066 (6966)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 70.5¢	$342.16	$378.7	+$36.54
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 26.5¢	$147.73	$122.69	-$25.04
nigiri99	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 44¢	$257.84	$454.15	+$196.31	52% 352-328 (680)
1L 1lovejump	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 73.5¢	$748.8	$415.44	+$27.96	36% 94-169 (263)
LI Limousin	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 74.9¢	$340.97	$352.77	+$11.8	33% 534-1108 (1642)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 42.7¢	$194.33	$318.5	+$124.17	52% 185-171 (356)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 42¢	$131.46	$219.1	+$87.64	40% 77-117 (194)
EU EulhunterCTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 32.1¢	$231.29	$215.82	-$15.46	51% 139-136 (275)
SM smithagentCTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 55¢	$467.5	$191.25	-$276.25	43% 344-463 (807)
0xheavy888	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 43¢	$115.69	$184.78	+$71.32	54% 274-237 (511)

RN1

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$5,238.72

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$893.66

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

6512395314597884

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$5,196.9

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$574.88

Record

50%

3540-3500 (7040)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$3,071.82

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$504.16

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$1,483.9761.8¢+$196.56

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$1,587.8553.7¢-$700.72

LightParadox

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$2,306.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$134.38

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

TRCM

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,304.62

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$724.79

Record

12%

61-439 (500)

suntori

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,911.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$120.47

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$2,216.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$634.04

Record

51%

2067-1978 (4045)

thirdt1me

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$3,037.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$45.08

Record

45%

157-194 (351)

VeryLucky888

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,065

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$575.43

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

babybells

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,685.86

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$31.5

Record

27%

157-430 (587)

NotJumpARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,210.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$3.31

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$607.5351.9¢+$212.43

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$366.2544.3¢-$209.12

0000.CTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$2,439

Value

$952.84

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

32%

10-21 (31)

thestingsnake

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$662.9

Value

$691.38

PnL

+$231.52

Record

30%

171-397 (568)

VenusianCTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$650.19

Value

$645.01

PnL

-$5.18

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

alpheclabs2CTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$1,022.66

Value

$553.2

PnL

-$469.46

Record

45%

192-232 (424)

38791873984189

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$360.9

Value

$540.4

PnL

+$179.5

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$489.89

Value

$501.39

PnL

+$11.5

Record

56%

3900-3066 (6966)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$342.1670.5¢+$36.54

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$147.7326.5¢-$25.04

nigiri99

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$257.84

Value

$454.15

PnL

+$196.31

Record

52%

352-328 (680)

1lovejump

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$748.8

Value

$415.44

PnL

+$27.96

Record

36%

94-169 (263)

Limousin

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$340.97

Value

$352.77

PnL

+$11.8

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

LeLynxMalynx

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$194.33

Value

$318.5

PnL

+$124.17

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$131.46

Value

$219.1

PnL

+$87.64

Record

40%

77-117 (194)

EulhunterCTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$231.29

Value

$215.82

PnL

-$15.46

Record

51%

139-136 (275)

smithagentCTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$467.5

Value

$191.25

PnL

-$276.25

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

0xheavy888

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$115.69

Value

$184.78

PnL

+$71.32

Record

54%

274-237 (511)

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 76%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

25 of 35 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Elizabeth Mandlik. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpElizabeth Mandlik 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrElizabeth Mandlik 65% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedElizabeth Mandlik 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Elizabeth Mandlik 70% · 33

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elizabeth Mandlik wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.