Sopo: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Veronika Erjavec

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Elizabeth Mandlik (69%) · Elizabeth Mandlik at 61¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 16

Elizabeth Mandlik61¢Veronika Erjavec39¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elizabeth Mandlik

Consensus Traders

Elizabeth Mandlik 69%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$43.6K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 60.5¢

+29% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

9 of 13 top traders (69%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Elizabeth Mandlik61%

Veronika Erjavec40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizabeth Mandlik9 traders

Total Value$11.0K

Total Shares19,883

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Veronika Erjavec4 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares10,799

Combined PnL+$757.47

Elizabeth Mandlik — 69%Veronika Erjavec — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Elizabeth Mandlik. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Veronika Erjavec) and the top 1000 (12 on Elizabeth Mandlik) disagree here.

Hand-pickedVeronika Erjavec 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Elizabeth Mandlik 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52.7¢	$16.1K	$15.9K	-$233.62	—
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52.7¢	$11.8K	$12.2K	+$411.4
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 53.4¢	$4.3K	$3.7K	-$645.02
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45¢	$6.6K	$8.0K	+$1.4K	—
LI LimousinCTR	Veronika Erjavecavg 39.7¢	$4.8K	$5.6K	+$760.4	—
VE VenusianARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 50.1¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$278.14	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 50.1¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$432.68
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$154.53
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 51.4¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$128.08	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 51.4¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$257.13
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 48.4¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$129.04
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 56¢	$2.4K	$1.8K	-$95.94	—
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$126.59
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 42¢	$577.41	$625.35	+$30.64
TH thirdt1me	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 49.6¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$142.96	—
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 37¢	$2.3K	$1.1K	+$164.37	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 37¢	$679.62	$835.97	+$156.31
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 52.6¢	$222.6	$230.68	+$8.06
TH thestingsnake	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 58.9¢	$1.1K	$903.78	-$73.64	—
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 61¢	$596.57	$562.58	-$33.99	—
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 47.2¢	$289.23	$334.18	+$38.79
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 61¢	$306.16	$228.4	-$72.79
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 57.5¢	$1.3K	$542.01	-$71.79	—
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 57.5¢	$320.96	$303.99	-$44.95
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 48.3¢	$252.62	$238.02	-$26.84
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 53.5¢	$327.17	$340.81	+$13.64	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 42.8¢	$163.3	$173.75	+$10.45
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 53.5¢	$163.87	$167.05	+$3.18
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 50.4¢	$280.88	$278.77	-$2.11	—
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 50.4¢	$149.5	$161.69	+$12.2
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 51.1¢	$131.38	$117.07	-$14.31
tradecraft	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 44.8¢	$206.24	$248.8	+$42.56	—
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 47¢	$250	$136.25	+$18.75	—
machinelearnedARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 60.7¢	$137.94	$131.75	-$6.19	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 44.8¢	$67.88	$68.88	+$1
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 60.7¢	$70.06	$62.87	-$7.19
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 30.8¢	$80.92	$92.12	+$11.2	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 30.8¢	$46.6	$59.69	+$13.09
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 54.9¢	$29.44	$32.43	-$1.89
nigiri99<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 49¢	$68.11	$75.76	+$7.65	—
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 56.6¢	$81.1	$74.93	-$6.17	—
└ Veronika Erjavec leg	Veronika Erjavecavg 56.6¢	$56.6	$45.5	-$3.1
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 60.2¢	$32.5	$29.43	-$3.07
OJ ojg<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 62¢	$37.7	$30.83	-$6.67	—
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 51¢	$26.62	$23.75	-$2.87	—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 43¢	$23.48	$13.78	+$1.85	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Veronika Erjavecavg 65¢	$6.38	$4.47	-$1.91	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 39¢	$2.45	$2.73	+$0.28	—
US User7429<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.73	+$0.58	—

RN1ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$16,143.84

Value

$15.9K

PnL

-$233.62

Record

—

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$11,803.0452.7¢+$411.4

Veronika Erjavec$4,340.853.4¢-$645.02

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$6,606.1

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

—

LimousinCTR

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$4,803.17

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$760.4

Record

—

VenusianARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$3,423.17

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$278.14

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$2,262.9450.1¢-$432.68

Elizabeth Mandlik$1,160.2352.5¢+$154.53

MadridTimeARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$3,272.95

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$128.08

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$2,256.1851.4¢-$257.13

Elizabeth Mandlik$1,016.7748.4¢+$129.04

38791873984189ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$2,407.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$95.94

Record

—

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$1,189.8656¢-$126.59

Veronika Erjavec$577.4142¢+$30.64

thirdt1me

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,421.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$142.96

Record

—

LightParadoxARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$2,260.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$164.37

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$679.6237¢+$156.31

Elizabeth Mandlik$222.652.6¢+$8.06

thestingsnake

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,105.11

Value

$903.78

PnL

-$73.64

Record

—

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$596.57

Value

$562.58

PnL

-$33.99

Record

—

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$289.2347.2¢+$38.79

Veronika Erjavec$306.1661¢-$72.79

1lovejumpARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,337.21

Value

$542.01

PnL

-$71.79

Record

—

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$320.9657.5¢-$44.95

Veronika Erjavec$252.6248.3¢-$26.84

EulhunterARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$327.17

Value

$340.81

PnL

+$13.64

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$163.342.8¢+$10.45

Elizabeth Mandlik$163.8753.5¢+$3.18

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$280.88

Value

$278.77

PnL

-$2.11

Record

—

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$149.550.4¢+$12.2

Veronika Erjavec$131.3851.1¢-$14.31

tradecraft

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$206.24

Value

$248.8

PnL

+$42.56

Record

—

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$250

Value

$136.25

PnL

+$18.75

Record

—

machinelearnedARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$137.94

Value

$131.75

PnL

-$6.19

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$67.8844.8¢+$1

Elizabeth Mandlik$70.0660.7¢-$7.19

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0ARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$80.92

Value

$92.12

PnL

+$11.2

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$46.630.8¢+$13.09

Elizabeth Mandlik$29.4454.9¢-$1.89

nigiri99<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$68.11

Value

$75.76

PnL

+$7.65

Record

—

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$81.1

Value

$74.93

PnL

-$6.17

Record

—

Both legs:

Veronika Erjavec$56.656.6¢-$3.1

Elizabeth Mandlik$32.560.2¢-$3.07

ojg<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$37.7

Value

$30.83

PnL

-$6.67

Record

—

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$26.62

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$2.87

Record

—

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$23.48

Value

$13.78

PnL

+$1.85

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Veronika Erjavec

Invested

$6.38

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$1.91

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.28

Record

—

User7429<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.58

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

9 of 13 top traders (69%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Elizabeth Mandlik. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Veronika Erjavec) and the top 1000 (12 on Elizabeth Mandlik) disagree here.

Hand-pickedVeronika Erjavec 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Elizabeth Mandlik 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elizabeth Mandlik wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.