Luanda: Sofya Lansere vs Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Noma Noha Akugue (100%) · Noma Noha Akugue at 59¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 14

Sofya Lansere42¢Noma Noha Akugue58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Noma Noha Akugue

Consensus Traders

Noma Noha Akugue 100%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$945.84

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 58.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNoma Noha Akugue at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sofya Lansere42%

Noma Noha Akugue59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Noma Noha Akugue9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,326

Combined PnL-$945.84

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noma Noha Akugueavg 60¢	$2.8K	$2.2K	-$630.12	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Noma Noha Akugueavg 65.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$67.23	42% 8168-11359 (19527)
65 6512395314597884	Noma Noha Akugueavg 69¢	$772.11	$739.04	-$33.07	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
VE Venusian	Noma Noha Akugueavg 68.1¢	$773.96	$630.64	-$143.32	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
FL Flaznorp	Noma Noha Akugueavg 69.4¢	$661.49	$595.99	-$65.51	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 38.2¢	$450.8	$469.31	+$18.51	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 38.2¢	$253.12	$242.07	-$11.05
└ Noma Noha Akugue leg	Noma Noha Akugueavg 55.2¢	$197.68	$227.24	+$29.55
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 67.7¢	$498.2	$220.39	-$29.87	53% 827-732 (1559)
└ Noma Noha Akugue leg	Noma Noha Akugueavg 67.7¢	$146.88	$133.45	-$9.62
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 45.7¢	$103.3	$86.94	-$20.25
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 29.7¢	$221.28	$167.08	+$19.44	60% 4506-3007 (7513)
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 29.7¢	$76.49	$99.2	+$22.71
└ Noma Noha Akugue leg	Noma Noha Akugueavg 62.8¢	$69.29	$67.88	-$3.27
LI Limousin	Noma Noha Akugueavg 69.1¢	$153.38	$146.52	-$6.86	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 54¢	$86.52	$88.58	+$2.06	52% 14650-13313 (27963)
└ Noma Noha Akugue leg	Noma Noha Akugueavg 54¢	$52.46	$57.76	+$5.3
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 44.8¢	$34.06	$30.82	-$3.24
EU Eulhunter<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 65.2¢	$73.21	$70.63	-$2.59	54% 6325-5389 (11714)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 61.3¢	$36.05	$35.7	-$0.35	64% 5376-2994 (8370)
machinelearned<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 48¢	$16.8	$20	+$3.2	55% 9921-8233 (18154)

RN1

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$2,831.93

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$630.12

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

ferrariChampions2026

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$1,329.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$67.23

Record

42%

8168-11359 (19527)

6512395314597884

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$772.11

Value

$739.04

PnL

-$33.07

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

Venusian

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$773.96

Value

$630.64

PnL

-$143.32

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

Flaznorp

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$661.49

Value

$595.99

PnL

-$65.51

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$450.8

Value

$469.31

PnL

+$18.51

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

Both legs:

Sofya Lansere$253.1238.2¢-$11.05

Noma Noha Akugue$197.6855.2¢+$29.55

1lovejumpARB<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$498.2

Value

$220.39

PnL

-$29.87

Record

53%

827-732 (1559)

Both legs:

Noma Noha Akugue$146.8867.7¢-$9.62

Sofya Lansere$103.345.7¢-$20.25

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$221.28

Value

$167.08

PnL

+$19.44

Record

60%

4506-3007 (7513)

Both legs:

Sofya Lansere$76.4929.7¢+$22.71

Noma Noha Akugue$69.2962.8¢-$3.27

Limousin

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$153.38

Value

$146.52

PnL

-$6.86

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$86.52

Value

$88.58

PnL

+$2.06

Record

52%

14650-13313 (27963)

Both legs:

Noma Noha Akugue$52.4654¢+$5.3

Sofya Lansere$34.0644.8¢-$3.24

Eulhunter<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$73.21

Value

$70.63

PnL

-$2.59

Record

54%

6325-5389 (11714)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$36.05

Value

$35.7

PnL

-$0.35

Record

64%

5376-2994 (8370)

machinelearned<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$16.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.2

Record

55%

9921-8233 (18154)

Research grade

NeutralNoma Noha Akugue at 59%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 9 top traders (100%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Noma Noha Akugue wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.