Set Handicap: Coco Gauff (-1.5) vs Marta Kostyuk (+1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Coco Gauff (50%) · Coco Gauff at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Coco Gauff53¢Marta Kostyuk47¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coco Gauff

Consensus Traders

Coco Gauff 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$16.72

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCoco Gauff at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coco Gauff

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Coco Gauff53%

Marta Kostyuk48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Coco Gauff4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,431

Combined PnL+$20.62

Marta Kostyuk4 traders

Total Value$204.18

Total Shares425

Combined PnL-$3.9

Coco Gauff — 50%Marta Kostyuk — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Coco Gauff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Coco Gauff) and the top 1000 (6 on Marta Kostyuk) disagree here.

ctrMarta Kostyuk 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCoco Gauff 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marta Kostyuk 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR Crazyboy77	Coco Gauffavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$20	10% 11-98 (109)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Coco Gauffavg 50.9¢	$137	$137.37	+$0.37	28% 165-432 (597)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 49¢	$97.99	$95.99	-$2	43% 23-31 (54)
VeryLucky888	Coco Gauffavg 51¢	$131.09	$79.39	+$0.3	52% 761-712 (1473)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 48.7¢	$56.19	$55.39	-$0.8	40% 77-117 (194)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 49¢	$49	$48	-$1	52% 352-328 (680)
BA banepir<$100	Coco Gauffavg 52¢	$5.2	$5.15	-$0.05	— 10-8 (18)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Marta Kostyukavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.8	-$0.1	38% 487-808 (1295)

Crazyboy77

Coco Gauff

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$20

Record

10%

11-98 (109)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Coco Gauff

Invested

$137

Value

$137.37

PnL

+$0.37

Record

28%

165-432 (597)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$97.99

Value

$95.99

PnL

-$2

Record

43%

23-31 (54)

VeryLucky888

Coco Gauff

Invested

$131.09

Value

$79.39

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$56.19

Value

$55.39

PnL

-$0.8

Record

40%

77-117 (194)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$49

Value

$48

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

352-328 (680)

banepir<$100

Coco Gauff

Invested

$5.2

Value

$5.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

10-8 (18)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Marta Kostyuk

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

38%

487-808 (1295)

Research grade

NeutralCoco Gauff at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Coco Gauff

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Coco Gauff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Coco Gauff) and the top 1000 (6 on Marta Kostyuk) disagree here.

ctrMarta Kostyuk 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedCoco Gauff 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Marta Kostyuk 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coco Gauff wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.