WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Coco Gauff
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Coco Gauff (33%) · Coco Gauff at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Coco Gauff
6
Coco Gauff 33%
$1.2K
-$11.62
70.4¢ → 69.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCoco Gauff at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Coco Gauff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Coco Gauffavg 70.3¢ | $822.72 | $807.6 | -$15.12 | 51% 1851-1805 (3656) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR | Marta Kostyukavg 29¢ | $141.52 | $146.4 | +$4.88 | 3% 7-201 (208) |
SE sentrio | Coco Gauffavg 71¢ | $148.51 | $144.42 | -$4.09 | 38% 351-584 (935) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Marta Kostyukavg 31¢ | $105.72 | $107.42 | +$1.71 | 52% 463-433 (896) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Marta Kostyukavg 30¢ | $15.18 | $15.69 | +$0.51 | 31% 384-854 (1238) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Marta Kostyukavg 30¢ | $14.82 | $15.31 | +$0.49 | 30% 378-880 (1258) |
Invested
$822.72
Value
$807.6
PnL
-$15.12
Record
51%
1851-1805 (3656)
Invested
$141.52
Value
$146.4
PnL
+$4.88
Record
3%
7-201 (208)
Invested
$148.51
Value
$144.42
PnL
-$4.09
Record
38%
351-584 (935)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$105.72
Value
$107.42
PnL
+$1.71
Record
52%
463-433 (896)
Invested
$15.18
Value
$15.69
PnL
+$0.51
Record
31%
384-854 (1238)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$15.31
PnL
+$0.49
Record
30%
378-880 (1258)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.