Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Polona Hercog, while the market favors Carole Monnet (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Sopo: Polona Hercog vs Carole Monnet
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Polona Hercog (60%) · Polona Hercog at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Polona Hercog
5
Polona Hercog 60%
$2.3K
$48.82
43.9¢ → 41.5¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPolona Hercog at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Carole Monnet 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 12xmrboltCTR | Polona Hercogavg 44¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$15.88 | 9% 4-40 (44) |
 VeryLucky888 | Carole Monnetavg 56¢ | $652.06 | $680.47 | +$28.41 | 52% 445-417 (862) |
FL Flaznorp | Carole Monnetavg 56¢ | $141.68 | $140.42 | -$1.26 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Polona Hercogavg 42¢ | $84 | $89 | +$5 | 48% 1310-1415 (2725) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Polona Hercogavg 42¢ | $13.44 | $14.24 | +$0.8 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
12xmrboltCTRInvested
$1,397.02
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$15.88
Record
9%
4-40 (44)
VeryLucky888Invested
$652.06
Value
$680.47
PnL
+$28.41
Record
52%
445-417 (862)
Invested
$141.68
Value
$140.42
PnL
-$1.26
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$84
Value
$89
PnL
+$5
Record
48%
1310-1415 (2725)
Invested
$13.44
Value
$14.24
PnL
+$0.8
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.