Cali: Julia Grabher vs Julia Riera

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Riera (62%) · Julia Riera at 90¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 11

Julia Grabher10¢Julia Riera90¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Julia Riera

Consensus Traders

Julia Riera 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

79.1¢ → 90¢

+14% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralJulia Riera at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Riera

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Julia Grabher10%

Julia Riera90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Julia Riera13 traders

Total Value$19.1K

Total Shares24,199

Combined PnL-$747.7

Julia Grabher8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares7,126

Combined PnL-$477.72

Julia Riera — 62%Julia Grabher — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
YE yesmate	Julia Rieraavg 78¢	$9.5K	$8.4K	$-1.1K	53% 377-336 (713)
HV HVAB	Julia Rieraavg 85.2¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$69.31	76% 600-194 (794)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Julia Grabheravg 18.7¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$289.34	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 79.5¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$123.79
└ Julia Grabher leg	Julia Grabheravg 18.7¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$413.13
VE Venusian	Julia Rieraavg 78.9¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$146.95	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
MA MadridTime	Julia Rieraavg 86.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$96.56	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
TH thestingsnake	Julia Rieraavg 79.1¢	$995.01	$903.28	+$160.85	60% 4348-2912 (7260)
1L 1lovejump	Julia Rieraavg 78.5¢	$1.8K	$853.76	+$42.49	52% 736-673 (1409)
OM omnibus-076daa	Julia Rieraavg 52.2¢	$539.48	$774.08	+$234.6	50% 20734-20980 (41714)
38 38791873984189	Julia Rieraavg 75.7¢	$1.9K	$671.82	-$47.6	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Julia Grabheravg 21.9¢	$714.21	$373.08	-$341.13	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 93¢	$226.91	$228.13	+$1.21
└ Julia Grabher leg	Julia Grabheravg 21.9¢	$487.3	$144.95	-$342.35
RN1CTR	Julia Grabheravg 19.4¢	$730.01	$270.45	-$459.56	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Julia Grabheravg 25.8¢	$217.66	$244.93	+$27.27	47% 11071-12407 (23478)
EU Eulhunter	Julia Rieraavg 74.6¢	$198.23	$178.11	-$20.12	54% 6178-5224 (11402)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Julia Grabheravg 22.8¢	$126.77	$159.07	+$32.3	59% 31860-22491 (54351)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Julia Grabheravg 21.4¢	$164.9	$154	-$10.9	46% 1391-1643 (3034)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Julia Rieraavg 86.4¢	$152.11	$142.05	-$10.06	52% 14224-12997 (27221)
DI dips.CTR	Julia Grabheravg 29.4¢	$131.92	$123.2	-$8.72	47% 10355-11792 (22147)
LI LimousinCTR	Julia Grabheravg 19¢	$162.61	$118.99	-$43.63	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Julia Rieraavg 75.7¢	$50.7	$51.26	+$0.56	57% 19072-14109 (33181)
poshposhCTR<$100	Julia Grabheravg 31¢	$15.76	$15.76	-$0	57% 12266-9326 (21592)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Julia Grabheravg 23¢	$23	$8.5	-$14.5	53% 22623-19873 (42496)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Julia Rieraavg 80¢	$8	$8	+$0	82% 7015-1513 (8528)
SE sentrio<$100	Julia Rieraavg 77¢	$6.38	$6.35	-$0.03	50% 25481-25189 (50670)

yesmate

Julia Riera

Invested

$9,455.59

Value

$8.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

377-336 (713)

HVAB

Julia Riera

Invested

$5,010.47

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$69.31

Record

76%

600-194 (794)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$2,895.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$289.34

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$1,407.5579.5¢+$123.79

Julia Grabher$1,488.1218.7¢-$413.13

Venusian

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,041.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$146.95

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

MadridTime

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,101.88

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$96.56

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

thestingsnake

Julia Riera

Invested

$995.01

Value

$903.28

PnL

+$160.85

Record

60%

4348-2912 (7260)

1lovejump

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,758.14

Value

$853.76

PnL

+$42.49

Record

52%

736-673 (1409)

omnibus-076daa

Julia Riera

Invested

$539.48

Value

$774.08

PnL

+$234.6

Record

50%

20734-20980 (41714)

38791873984189

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,852.37

Value

$671.82

PnL

-$47.6

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$714.21

Value

$373.08

PnL

-$341.13

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$226.9193¢+$1.21

Julia Grabher$487.321.9¢-$342.35

RN1CTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$730.01

Value

$270.45

PnL

-$459.56

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

topdogbigboiCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$217.66

Value

$244.93

PnL

+$27.27

Record

47%

11071-12407 (23478)

Eulhunter

Julia Riera

Invested

$198.23

Value

$178.11

PnL

-$20.12

Record

54%

6178-5224 (11402)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$126.77

Value

$159.07

PnL

+$32.3

Record

59%

31860-22491 (54351)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$164.9

Value

$154

PnL

-$10.9

Record

46%

1391-1643 (3034)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Julia Riera

Invested

$152.11

Value

$142.05

PnL

-$10.06

Record

52%

14224-12997 (27221)

dips.CTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$131.92

Value

$123.2

PnL

-$8.72

Record

47%

10355-11792 (22147)

LimousinCTR

Julia Grabher

Invested

$162.61

Value

$118.99

PnL

-$43.63

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

BillBenter2026<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$50.7

Value

$51.26

PnL

+$0.56

Record

57%

19072-14109 (33181)

poshposhCTR<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$15.76

Value

$15.76

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

12266-9326 (21592)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$23

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$14.5

Record

53%

22623-19873 (42496)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

7015-1513 (8528)

sentrio<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$6.38

Value

$6.35

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

Research grade

NeutralJulia Riera at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Riera

13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Julia Riera wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.