Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Leyre Romero Gormaz, while the market favors Julia Riera (52%). 6 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cali: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Julia Riera

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Leyre Romero Gormaz (43%) · Leyre Romero Gormaz at 49¢ · $73K held · ends Nov 13

Leyre Romero Gormaz49¢Julia Riera51¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Consensus Traders

Leyre Romero Gormaz 43%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$73.3K

Combined PnL

$436.65

Smart Money Entry

31.2¢ → 48.5¢

+56% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Riera 52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Leyre Romero Gormaz49%

Julia Riera52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leyre Romero Gormaz6 traders

Total Value$20.4K

Total Shares54,662

Combined PnL+$309.88

Julia Riera8 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares9,413

Combined PnL+$126.77

Leyre Romero Gormaz — 43%Julia Riera — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 67.8¢	$25.5K	$21.8K	$-3.7K	51% 4827-4692 (9519)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 67.8¢	$20.3K	$15.4K	$-4.9K
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 39.7¢	$5.2K	$6.4K	+$1.2K
VE VenusianARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 67.7¢	$10.1K	$10.2K	+$165.92	50% 1611-1634 (3245)
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 36.5¢	$4.5K	$6.0K	+$1.5K
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 67.7¢	$5.5K	$4.2K	$-1.3K
LI LimousinARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 60.1¢	$9.6K	$10.1K	+$489.82	51% 1648-1556 (3204)
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 36.4¢	$3.9K	$5.2K	+$1.3K
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 60.1¢	$5.7K	$4.9K	-$817.75
MA MadridTimeCTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 28.7¢	$6.2K	$8.7K	+$2.5K	49% 1546-1631 (3177)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 27.1¢	$6.1K	$5.4K	-$707.08	42% 8077-11281 (19358)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 39.6¢	$6.4K	$5.1K	$-1.3K	50% 1593-1611 (3204)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 81.5¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$98.14	51% 26331-24957 (51288)
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 31.4¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$592.36
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 81.5¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	-$690.5
tradecraft	Julia Rieraavg 59.2¢	$1.8K	$2.5K	+$693.09	51% 6449-6228 (12677)
RN1	Julia Rieraavg 71.3¢	$1.9K	$1.5K	-$333.51	53% 61787-54062 (115849)
38 38791873984189	Julia Rieraavg 66.5¢	$1.9K	$1.3K	-$8.85	48% 61939-66798 (128737)
dips.	Julia Rieraavg 81.8¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$196.99	47% 10796-12360 (23156)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 72.4¢	$1.7K	$981.04	-$295.92	60% 4489-2992 (7481)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 72.4¢	$861.99	$768.04	-$97.63
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 29.3¢	$175.73	$213	-$198.29
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 31¢	$979.94	$931.02	-$48.92	46% 1671-1955 (3626)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 62.5¢	$249.35	$252.85	+$3.51	52% 14594-13276 (27870)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 62.5¢	$167.19	$169.91	+$2.72
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 36.2¢	$82.15	$82.95	+$0.79
EU EulhunterCTR	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 27.8¢	$269.63	$180.6	-$96.53	54% 6311-5373 (11684)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 29.3¢	$127.21	$153.03	+$25.82	50% 21375-21650 (43025)
└ Leyre Romero Gormaz leg	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 29.3¢	$66.56	$83.04	+$16.49
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 55¢	$60.65	$69.99	+$9.34
1L 1lovejump	Julia Rieraavg 72.1¢	$649.88	$136.27	-$42.04	53% 816-719 (1535)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 54¢	$61.91	$62.61	+$0.7	56% 8104-6429 (14533)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Julia Rieraavg 72.3¢	$27.49	$30.4	+$2.91	57% 19393-14353 (33746)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Julia Rieraavg 59.9¢	$74.11	$21.73	+$12.23	64% 5335-2949 (8284)
TRCM<$100	Julia Rieraavg 75.9¢	$3.8	$3.73	-$0.07	55% 4071-3281 (7352)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$25,548.47

Value

$21.8K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

51%

4827-4692 (9519)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$20,303.6467.8¢$-4.9K

Leyre Romero Gormaz$5,244.8439.7¢+$1.2K

VenusianARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$10,061.97

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$165.92

Record

50%

1611-1634 (3245)

Both legs:

Leyre Romero Gormaz$4,522.5336.5¢+$1.5K

Julia Riera$5,539.4467.7¢$-1.3K

LimousinARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$9,646.58

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$489.82

Record

51%

1648-1556 (3204)

Both legs:

Leyre Romero Gormaz$3,921.5536.4¢+$1.3K

Julia Riera$5,725.0360.1¢-$817.75

MadridTimeCTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$6,229.86

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

49%

1546-1631 (3177)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$6,071.04

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$707.08

Record

42%

8077-11281 (19358)

LightParadoxCTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$6,428.39

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

50%

1593-1611 (3204)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$2,787.47

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$98.14

Record

51%

26331-24957 (51288)

Both legs:

Leyre Romero Gormaz$1,002.6731.4¢+$592.36

Julia Riera$1,784.881.5¢-$690.5

tradecraft

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,762.88

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$693.09

Record

51%

6449-6228 (12677)

RN1

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,855.42

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$333.51

Record

53%

61787-54062 (115849)

38791873984189

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,886.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$8.85

Record

48%

61939-66798 (128737)

dips.

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,368.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$196.99

Record

47%

10796-12360 (23156)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,684.8

Value

$981.04

PnL

-$295.92

Record

60%

4489-2992 (7481)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$861.9972.4¢-$97.63

Leyre Romero Gormaz$175.7329.3¢-$198.29

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$979.94

Value

$931.02

PnL

-$48.92

Record

46%

1671-1955 (3626)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$249.35

Value

$252.85

PnL

+$3.51

Record

52%

14594-13276 (27870)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$167.1962.5¢+$2.72

Leyre Romero Gormaz$82.1536.2¢+$0.79

EulhunterCTR

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$269.63

Value

$180.6

PnL

-$96.53

Record

54%

6311-5373 (11684)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$127.21

Value

$153.03

PnL

+$25.82

Record

50%

21375-21650 (43025)

Both legs:

Leyre Romero Gormaz$66.5629.3¢+$16.49

Julia Riera$60.6555¢+$9.34

1lovejump

Julia Riera

Invested

$649.88

Value

$136.27

PnL

-$42.04

Record

53%

816-719 (1535)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$61.91

Value

$62.61

PnL

+$0.7

Record

56%

8104-6429 (14533)

BillBenter2026<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$27.49

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$2.91

Record

57%

19393-14353 (33746)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$74.11

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$12.23

Record

64%

5335-2949 (8284)

TRCM<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.07

Record

55%

4071-3281 (7352)

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

6 of 14 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Julia Riera 52%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leyre Romero Gormaz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.