Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Boulter

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Katie Boulter (22%) · Katie Boulter at 61¢ · $51K held · ends Nov 9

Viktorija Golubic40¢Katie Boulter60¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Katie Boulter

Consensus Traders

Katie Boulter 22%

Total Value

$50.5K

Combined PnL

-$739.3

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKatie Boulter at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Katie Boulter

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Viktorija Golubic40%

Katie Boulter61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Katie Boulter4 traders

Total Value$34.1K

Total Shares58,726

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Viktorija Golubic14 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares40,077

Combined PnL+$267.75

Katie Boulter — 22%Viktorija Golubic — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Katie Boulter. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Viktorija Golubic) and the top 1000 (4 on Katie Boulter) disagree here.

whaleViktorija Golubic 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpKatie Boulter 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrViktorija Golubic 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedViktorija Golubic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Katie Boulter 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NA Nathan8s	Katie Boulteravg 60¢	$31.4K	$30.4K	$-1.0K	9% 2-21 (23)
RN1CTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 39.7¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$16.27	54% 57714-49978 (107692)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Katie Boulteravg 58¢	$4.4K	$2.6K	+$22.25	46% 464-539 (1003)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 40¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$120	47% 2607-2902 (5509)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 40.5¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$63.29	72% 6904-2705 (9609)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 40¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$97.46	50% 2565-2545 (5110)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 42¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$47.62	54% 741-625 (1366)
VeryLucky888CTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 41.1¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	+$30.47	58% 43210-31449 (74659)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$30	53% 5731-5065 (10796)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 40¢	$800	$840	+$40	59% 4081-2894 (6975)
HI hi774cCTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 40¢	$629.37	$660.84	+$31.47	51% 4836-4566 (9402)
RE RebornAthena	Katie Boulteravg 59¢	$600	$589.83	-$10.17	53% 2019-1822 (3841)
0X 0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470	Katie Boulteravg 57¢	$515.8	$524.9	+$4.58	72% 360-142 (502)
SE sentrioCTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 39¢	$390	$420	+$30	50% 24963-24637 (49600)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Viktorija Golubicavg 39.8¢	$216.43	$228.33	+$11.9	61% 13833-8737 (22570)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Viktorija Golubicavg 39¢	$39	$42	+$3	48% 9549-10314 (19863)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Viktorija Golubicavg 41¢	$28.7	$29.4	+$0.7	55% 7418-5961 (13379)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Viktorija Golubicavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.98	-$0.07	52% 7592-6886 (14478)

Nathan8s

Katie Boulter

Invested

$31,389.62

Value

$30.4K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

2-21 (23)

RN1CTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$2,680.98

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$16.27

Record

54%

57714-49978 (107692)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Katie Boulter

Invested

$4,449.4

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$22.25

Record

46%

464-539 (1003)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$120

Record

47%

2607-2902 (5509)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$2,512.05

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$63.29

Record

72%

6904-2705 (9609)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$1,949.24

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$97.46

Record

50%

2565-2545 (5110)

pltrkr111CTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$1,999.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$47.62

Record

54%

741-625 (1366)

VeryLucky888CTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$1,400.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30.47

Record

58%

43210-31449 (74659)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$1,230

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$30

Record

53%

5731-5065 (10796)

Bagwell306CTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$800

Value

$840

PnL

+$40

Record

59%

4081-2894 (6975)

hi774cCTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$629.37

Value

$660.84

PnL

+$31.47

Record

51%

4836-4566 (9402)

RebornAthena

Katie Boulter

Invested

$600

Value

$589.83

PnL

-$10.17

Record

53%

2019-1822 (3841)

0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470

Katie Boulter

Invested

$515.8

Value

$524.9

PnL

+$4.58

Record

72%

360-142 (502)

sentrioCTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$390

Value

$420

PnL

+$30

Record

50%

24963-24637 (49600)

LilybaeumCTR

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$216.43

Value

$228.33

PnL

+$11.9

Record

61%

13833-8737 (22570)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$39

Value

$42

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

9549-10314 (19863)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$28.7

Value

$29.4

PnL

+$0.7

Record

55%

7418-5961 (13379)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Viktorija Golubic

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.07

Record

52%

7592-6886 (14478)

Research grade

NeutralKatie Boulter at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Katie Boulter

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Katie Boulter. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Viktorija Golubic) and the top 1000 (4 on Katie Boulter) disagree here.

whaleViktorija Golubic 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpKatie Boulter 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrViktorija Golubic 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedViktorija Golubic 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Katie Boulter 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Katie Boulter wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.