Sopo: Irene Burillo Escorihuela vs Julia Grabher

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Grabher (55%) · Julia Grabher at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 18

Irene Burillo Escorihuela33¢Julia Grabher67¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Julia Grabher

Consensus Traders

Julia Grabher 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$61.98

Smart Money Entry

65.5¢ → 67.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralJulia Grabher at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Grabher

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Irene Burillo Escorihuela33%

Julia Grabher68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Julia Grabher6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,144

Combined PnL-$120.2

Irene Burillo Escorihuela5 traders

Total Value$465.53

Total Shares1,290

Combined PnL+$58.22

Julia Grabher — 55%Irene Burillo Escorihuela — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Julia Grabher. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Julia Grabher) and the top 1000 (9 on Irene Burillo Escorihuela) disagree here.

ctrIrene Burillo Escorihuela 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJulia Grabher 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Irene Burillo Escorihuela 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Julia Grabheravg 62.5¢	$542.99	$551.52	+$8.53	48% 1363-1480 (2843)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Julia Grabheravg 65.3¢	$533.39	$496.46	-$36.93	23% 123-409 (532)
└ Julia Grabher leg	Julia Grabheravg 65.3¢	$447.98	$394.45	-$53.53
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 35.6¢	$85.41	$102.01	+$16.6
FL Flaznorp	Julia Grabheravg 63¢	$466.87	$446.53	-$20.34	51% 1843-1797 (3640)
TH thirdt1me	Julia Grabheravg 62.8¢	$492.1	$410.29	-$32.61	42% 112-156 (268)
VI vibing123	Julia Grabheravg 69¢	$351.9	$323.85	-$28.05	63% 1097-652 (1749)
VeryLucky888	Julia Grabheravg 75¢	$375	$277.62	-$47.72	51% 455-429 (884)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 25¢	$134.9	$194.32	+$59.43	3% 7-201 (208)
VE VenusianCTR	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 38¢	$120.59	$114.24	-$6.35	31% 386-869 (1255)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 34¢	$68.06	$73.06	+$5	30% 378-870 (1248)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 34¢	$47.93	$50.75	+$2.82	31% 381-851 (1232)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Julia Grabheravg 66¢	$50.96	$50.35	-$0.61	56% 3851-3020 (6871)
└ Julia Grabher leg	Julia Grabheravg 66¢	$33	$30.25	-$2.75
└ Irene Burillo Escorihuela leg	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 35.3¢	$17.96	$20.1	+$2.14
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Irene Burillo Escorihuelaavg 35.8¢	$35.84	$33.16	-$2.68	30% 375-876 (1251)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Julia Grabheravg 58¢	$2.35	$2.33	-$0.02	49% 102-107 (209)

38791873984189

Julia Grabher

Invested

$542.99

Value

$551.52

PnL

+$8.53

Record

48%

1363-1480 (2843)

babybellsARB<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$533.39

Value

$496.46

PnL

-$36.93

Record

23%

123-409 (532)

Both legs:

Julia Grabher$447.9865.3¢-$53.53

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$85.4135.6¢+$16.6

Flaznorp

Julia Grabher

Invested

$466.87

Value

$446.53

PnL

-$20.34

Record

51%

1843-1797 (3640)

thirdt1me

Julia Grabher

Invested

$492.1

Value

$410.29

PnL

-$32.61

Record

42%

112-156 (268)

vibing123

Julia Grabher

Invested

$351.9

Value

$323.85

PnL

-$28.05

Record

63%

1097-652 (1749)

VeryLucky888

Julia Grabher

Invested

$375

Value

$277.62

PnL

-$47.72

Record

51%

455-429 (884)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$134.9

Value

$194.32

PnL

+$59.43

Record

7-201 (208)

VenusianCTR

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$120.59

Value

$114.24

PnL

-$6.35

Record

31%

386-869 (1255)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$68.06

Value

$73.06

PnL

+$5

Record

30%

378-870 (1248)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$47.93

Value

$50.75

PnL

+$2.82

Record

31%

381-851 (1232)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$50.96

Value

$50.35

PnL

-$0.61

Record

56%

3851-3020 (6871)

Both legs:

Julia Grabher$3366¢-$2.75

Irene Burillo Escorihuela$17.9635.3¢+$2.14

LimousinCTR<$100

Irene Burillo Escorihuela

Invested

$35.84

Value

$33.16

PnL

-$2.68

Record

30%

375-876 (1251)

Eulhunter<$100

Julia Grabher

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

102-107 (209)

Research grade

NeutralJulia Grabher at 68%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Grabher

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Julia Grabher. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Julia Grabher) and the top 1000 (9 on Irene Burillo Escorihuela) disagree here.

ctrIrene Burillo Escorihuela 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedJulia Grabher 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Irene Burillo Escorihuela 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Julia Grabher wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.