WTA Finals Doubles, Group 2 (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Perez/Schuurs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Siniakova/Townsend (80%) · Siniakova/Townsend at 94¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 17
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Research candidate
Siniakova/Townsend
5
Siniakova/Townsend 80%
$7.1K
$15.1
87.5¢ → 93.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateSiniakova/Townsend at 94%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Siniakova/Townsend. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Siniakova/Townsendavg 90.3¢ | $4.6K | $4.7K | +$127.55 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Siniakova/Townsendavg 79.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$20.97 | 54% 1656-1433 (3089) |
38 38791873984189 | Siniakova/Townsendavg 86¢ | $417.77 | $379.07 | +$18.42 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
 machinelearned | Siniakova/Townsendavg 86¢ | $184.39 | $187.56 | +$3.16 | 37% 395-676 (1071) |
TI timetowanderCTR | Perez/Schuursavg 21¢ | $210 | $55 | -$155 | 45% 348-428 (776) |
Invested
$4,610.51
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$127.55
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
Invested
$1,722.45
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$20.97
Record
54%
1656-1433 (3089)
Invested
$417.77
Value
$379.07
PnL
+$18.42
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
machinelearnedInvested
$184.39
Value
$187.56
PnL
+$3.16
Record
37%
395-676 (1071)
Invested
$210
Value
$55
PnL
-$155
Record
45%
348-428 (776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.