Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Guo/Mladenovic, while the market favors Mertens/Zhang (66%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

WTA Finals Doubles, Group 1 (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Mertens/Zhang

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Guo/Mladenovic (38%) · Guo/Mladenovic at 34¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 17

Guo/Mladenovic34¢Mertens/Zhang66¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Guo/Mladenovic

Consensus Traders

Guo/Mladenovic 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.8K

Combined PnL

-$243.43

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 34¢

-41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralGuo/Mladenovic at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Guo/Mladenovic

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Mertens/Zhang 66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Guo/Mladenovic34%

Mertens/Zhang66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mertens/Zhang5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,533

Combined PnL+$549.23

Guo/Mladenovic3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,340

Combined PnL-$792.65

Mertens/Zhang — 63%Guo/Mladenovic — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Guo/Mladenovic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMertens/Zhang 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMertens/Zhang 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Mertens/Zhang 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Mertens/Zhangavg 53.2¢	$8.4K	$8.4K	+$83.74	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
└ Mertens/Zhang leg	Mertens/Zhangavg 53.2¢	$4.8K	$5.9K	+$1.1K
└ Guo/Mladenovic leg	Guo/Mladenovicavg 48.4¢	$3.6K	$2.5K	$-1.1K
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Mertens/Zhangavg 49.7¢	$6.6K	$7.5K	+$857.24	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
└ Mertens/Zhang leg	Mertens/Zhangavg 49.7¢	$3.8K	$5.1K	+$1.3K
└ Guo/Mladenovic leg	Guo/Mladenovicavg 39.6¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$397.77
CUTJALENHURTS	Mertens/Zhangavg 43¢	$868.52	$1.3K	+$464.56	52% 2623-2460 (5083)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Mertens/Zhangavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	53% 750-672 (1422)
└ Mertens/Zhang leg	Mertens/Zhangavg 50¢	$525	$693	+$168
└ Guo/Mladenovic leg	Guo/Mladenovicavg 50¢	$525	$357	-$168
KK KkunnCTR	Guo/Mladenovicavg 57¢	$1.7K	$1.0K	-$690	14% 26-154 (180)
38 38791873984189	Mertens/Zhangavg 55.3¢	$710.69	$299.4	+$95.77	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
SU suntoriCTR	Guo/Mladenovicavg 65¢	$199.19	$104.26	-$94.93	46% 2359-2814 (5173)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Mertens/Zhangavg 35.4¢	$12.9	$24.05	+$11.15	37% 497-832 (1329)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Mertens/Zhangavg 43¢	$7.54	$11.58	+$4.04	39% 107-164 (271)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Guo/Mladenovicavg 57¢	$19.15	$11.42	-$7.73	52% 66-62 (128)
FE ferdinand2	Mertens/Zhangavg 70¢	$224.04	$8.81	-$26.29	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$8,354.89

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$83.74

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

Both legs:

Mertens/Zhang$4,785.0753.2¢+$1.1K

Guo/Mladenovic$3,569.8248.4¢$-1.1K

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$6,634.3

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$857.24

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Both legs:

Mertens/Zhang$3,830.5349.7¢+$1.3K

Guo/Mladenovic$2,803.7739.6¢-$397.77

CUTJALENHURTS

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$868.52

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$464.56

Record

52%

2623-2460 (5083)

NotJumpARB<$100

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$1,050

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

Both legs:

Mertens/Zhang$52550¢+$168

Guo/Mladenovic$52550¢-$168

KkunnCTR

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$1,710

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$690

Record

14%

26-154 (180)

38791873984189

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$710.69

Value

$299.4

PnL

+$95.77

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

suntoriCTR

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$199.19

Value

$104.26

PnL

-$94.93

Record

46%

2359-2814 (5173)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$12.9

Value

$24.05

PnL

+$11.15

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

mouzsynapse<$100

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$7.54

Value

$11.58

PnL

+$4.04

Record

39%

107-164 (271)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$19.15

Value

$11.42

PnL

-$7.73

Record

52%

66-62 (128)

ferdinand2

Mertens/Zhang

Invested

$224.04

Value

$8.81

PnL

-$26.29

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

NeutralGuo/Mladenovic at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Guo/Mladenovic

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Mertens/Zhang 66%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Guo/Mladenovic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMertens/Zhang 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMertens/Zhang 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Mertens/Zhang 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Guo/Mladenovic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.