Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hsieh/Ostapenko, while the market favors Guo/Mladenovic (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

WTA Finals Doubles, Group 1 (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Hsieh/Ostapenko

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Hsieh/Ostapenko (57%) · Hsieh/Ostapenko at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Guo/Mladenovic>99¢Hsieh/Ostapenko<1¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hsieh/Ostapenko

Consensus Traders

Hsieh/Ostapenko 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$145.12

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidHsieh/Ostapenko at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hsieh/Ostapenko

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Guo/Mladenovic 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Guo/Mladenovic100%

Hsieh/Ostapenko0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hsieh/Ostapenko4 traders

Total Value$353.57

Total Shares275

Combined PnL+$89.81

Guo/Mladenovic3 traders

Total Value$152.23

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$55.31

Hsieh/Ostapenko — 57%Guo/Mladenovic — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Hsieh/Ostapenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGuo/Mladenovic 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Hsieh/Ostapenko 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Hsieh/Ostapenkoavg 75¢	$3.9K	$2.2K	$-1.7K	54% 1541-1296 (2837)
└ Hsieh/Ostapenko leg	Hsieh/Ostapenkoavg 75¢	$3.6K	$1.2K	$-2.4K
└ Guo/Mladenovic leg	Guo/Mladenovicavg 33.3¢	$330.16	$991.77	+$661.61
38 38791873984189CTR	Hsieh/Ostapenkoavg 67.1¢	$242.68	$332.02	+$121.33	48% 603-645 (1248)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Guo/Mladenovicavg 74¢	$69.59	$93.68	+$24.09	12% 50-356 (406)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Guo/Mladenovicavg 30.4¢	$18.33	$36.08	+$17.74	20% 67-271 (338)
US User7429<$100	Guo/Mladenovicavg 40¢	$9	$22.48	+$13.48	15% 52-301 (353)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Hsieh/Ostapenkoavg 60¢	$28.8	$12	-$16.8	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
dips.CTR<$100	Hsieh/Ostapenkoavg 63¢	$22.05	$8.75	-$13.3	41% 159-232 (391)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Hsieh/Ostapenkoavg 69¢	$2.23	$0.81	-$1.42	27% 213-562 (775)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Hsieh/Ostapenko

Invested

$3,890.42

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

1541-1296 (2837)

Both legs:

Hsieh/Ostapenko$3,560.2575¢$-2.4K

Guo/Mladenovic$330.1633.3¢+$661.61

38791873984189CTR

Hsieh/Ostapenko

Invested

$242.68

Value

$332.02

PnL

+$121.33

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

SlickRick123<$100

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$69.59

Value

$93.68

PnL

+$24.09

Record

12%

50-356 (406)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$18.33

Value

$36.08

PnL

+$17.74

Record

20%

67-271 (338)

User7429<$100

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

Value

$22.48

PnL

+$13.48

Record

15%

52-301 (353)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Hsieh/Ostapenko

Invested

$28.8

Value

$12

PnL

-$16.8

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

dips.CTR<$100

Hsieh/Ostapenko

Invested

$22.05

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$13.3

Record

41%

159-232 (391)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Hsieh/Ostapenko

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$1.42

Record

27%

213-562 (775)

Research grade

AvoidHsieh/Ostapenko at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hsieh/Ostapenko

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Guo/Mladenovic 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Hsieh/Ostapenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGuo/Mladenovic 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Hsieh/Ostapenko 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hsieh/Ostapenko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.