WTA Finals, Final Stage (Doubles): Guo/Mladenovic vs Errani/Paolini

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Errani/Paolini (50%) · Errani/Paolini at 89¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Guo/Mladenovic11¢Errani/Paolini89¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Errani/Paolini

Consensus Traders

Errani/Paolini 50%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$3.46

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 89¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralErrani/Paolini at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Errani/Paolini

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Guo/Mladenovic11%

Errani/Paolini89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Errani/Paolini5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,223

Combined PnL+$1.03

Guo/Mladenovic5 traders

Total Value$164.77

Total Shares612

Combined PnL+$2.43

Errani/Paolini — 50%Guo/Mladenovic — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Errani/Paolini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperErrani/Paolini 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGuo/Mladenovic 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Guo/Mladenovic 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Errani/Paoliniavg 67.4¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$22.98	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
isco22	Errani/Paoliniavg 62.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	— 2-17 (19)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Errani/Paoliniavg 62¢	$146.88	$151.24	+$4.36	50% 2685-2651 (5336)
CI cigarettesCTR	Guo/Mladenovicavg 23¢	$115	$130	+$15	53% 7310-6373 (13683)
alpheclabs2	Errani/Paoliniavg 78¢	$439.04	$104.86	-$26.26	45% 329-396 (725)
38 38791873984189CTR	Guo/Mladenovicavg 30.7¢	$288.71	$23.57	-$12.72	47% 3551-3935 (7486)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Guo/Mladenovicavg 36¢	$5.7	$6	+$0.3	40% 632-954 (1586)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Errani/Paoliniavg 77¢	$3.85	$3.8	-$0.05	48% 2325-2529 (4854)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Guo/Mladenovicavg 39¢	$3.35	$3.39	+$0.04	50% 87-86 (173)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Guo/Mladenovicavg 40¢	$2	$1.8	-$0.2	41% 1108-1568 (2676)

Flaznorp

Errani/Paolini

Invested

$2,086.06

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$22.98

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

isco22

Errani/Paolini

Invested

$1,075.63

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

—

2-17 (19)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Errani/Paolini

Invested

$146.88

Value

$151.24

PnL

+$4.36

Record

50%

2685-2651 (5336)

cigarettesCTR

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$115

Value

$130

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

7310-6373 (13683)

alpheclabs2

Errani/Paolini

Invested

$439.04

Value

$104.86

PnL

-$26.26

Record

45%

329-396 (725)

38791873984189CTR

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$288.71

Value

$23.57

PnL

-$12.72

Record

47%

3551-3935 (7486)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$5.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

40%

632-954 (1586)

ferdinand2<$100

Errani/Paolini

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

2325-2529 (4854)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

87-86 (173)

sentrioCTR<$100

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

1108-1568 (2676)

Research grade

NeutralErrani/Paolini at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Errani/Paolini

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Errani/Paolini. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperErrani/Paolini 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGuo/Mladenovic 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Guo/Mladenovic 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Errani/Paolini wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.