WTA Finals Doubles, Group 1 (Doubles): Dabrowski/Stefani vs Guo/Mladenovic

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Dabrowski/Stefani (60%) · Dabrowski/Stefani at 81¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 17

Dabrowski/Stefani81¢Guo/Mladenovic19¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Dabrowski/Stefani

Consensus Traders

Dabrowski/Stefani 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

$135.4

Smart Money Entry

73.6¢ → 81¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDabrowski/Stefani at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Dabrowski/Stefani

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Dabrowski/Stefani81%

Guo/Mladenovic19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dabrowski/Stefani3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,060

Combined PnL-$14.07

Guo/Mladenovic2 traders

Total Value$908.85

Total Shares2,751

Combined PnL+$149.47

Dabrowski/Stefani — 60%Guo/Mladenovic — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Dabrowski/Stefani. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDabrowski/Stefani 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGuo/Mladenovic 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Dabrowski/Stefani 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WH whosay	Dabrowski/Stefaniavg 73.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$16.52	67% 22-11 (33)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Dabrowski/Stefaniavg 63.9¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$148.72	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
└ Dabrowski/Stefani leg	Dabrowski/Stefaniavg 63.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$58.9
└ Guo/Mladenovic leg	Guo/Mladenovicavg 26.7¢	$379.01	$468.83	+$89.82
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Guo/Mladenovicavg 27.7¢	$623.89	$742.85	+$118.96	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
alpheclabs2ARB<$100	Dabrowski/Stefaniavg 55.6¢	$393.06	$482.58	+$89.52	44% 123-159 (282)
└ Dabrowski/Stefani leg	Dabrowski/Stefaniavg 55.6¢	$251.35	$302.72	+$51.37
└ Guo/Mladenovic leg	Guo/Mladenovicavg 26¢	$141.71	$179.86	+$38.15
CI cigarettesCTR	Guo/Mladenovicavg 27¢	$135.49	$166	+$30.51	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
US User7429<$100	Dabrowski/Stefaniavg 77¢	$38.5	$41	+$2.5	25% 117-356 (473)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Dabrowski/Stefaniavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.35	-$0.05	29% 176-430 (606)

whosay

Dabrowski/Stefani

Invested

$2,210.17

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$16.52

Record

67%

22-11 (33)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Dabrowski/Stefani

Invested

$1,613.82

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$148.72

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

Both legs:

Dabrowski/Stefani$1,234.8163.9¢+$58.9

Guo/Mladenovic$379.0126.7¢+$89.82

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$623.89

Value

$742.85

PnL

+$118.96

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

alpheclabs2ARB<$100

Dabrowski/Stefani

Invested

$393.06

Value

$482.58

PnL

+$89.52

Record

44%

123-159 (282)

Both legs:

Dabrowski/Stefani$251.3555.6¢+$51.37

Guo/Mladenovic$141.7126¢+$38.15

cigarettesCTR

Guo/Mladenovic

Invested

$135.49

Value

$166

PnL

+$30.51

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

User7429<$100

Dabrowski/Stefani

Invested

$38.5

Value

$41

PnL

+$2.5

Record

25%

117-356 (473)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Dabrowski/Stefani

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

29%

176-430 (606)

Research grade

NeutralDabrowski/Stefani at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Dabrowski/Stefani

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Dabrowski/Stefani. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDabrowski/Stefani 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGuo/Mladenovic 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Dabrowski/Stefani 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Dabrowski/Stefani wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.