Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bucsa/Melichar, while the market favors Errani/Paolini (59%). 1 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
WTA Finals Doubles, Group 2 (Doubles): Bucsa/Melichar vs Errani/Paolini
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Bucsa/Melichar (33%) · Bucsa/Melichar at 41¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Bucsa/Melichar
3
Bucsa/Melichar 33%
2 arb excluded
$9.3K
$-1.4K
Research grade
NeutralBucsa/Melichar at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Errani/Paolini 59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Bucsa/Melichar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Bucsa/Melicharavg 50.1¢ | $8.6K | $7.2K | $-1.4K | 54% 1660-1438 (3098) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Bucsa/Melicharavg 54.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$211.22 | 50% 1558-1564 (3122) |
| └ Bucsa/Melichar leg | Bucsa/Melicharavg 54.5¢ | $953.98 | $708.74 | -$245.24 | |
| └ Errani/Paolini leg | Errani/Paoliniavg 56.5¢ | $640.57 | $674.59 | +$34.02 | |
TI timetowander | Errani/Paoliniavg 47¢ | $235 | $295 | +$60 | 45% 349-428 (777) |
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | Errani/Paoliniavg 53¢ | $321.84 | $280.32 | -$41.52 | 2% 5-200 (205) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Bucsa/Melicharavg 52.3¢ | $283.1 | $155.35 | -$45.86 | 48% 959-1032 (1991) |
| └ Bucsa/Melichar leg | Bucsa/Melicharavg 52.3¢ | $146.44 | $113.41 | -$48.93 | |
| └ Errani/Paolini leg | Errani/Paoliniavg 55.1¢ | $38.87 | $41.95 | +$3.08 |
Invested
$8,573.94
Value
$7.2K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
54%
1660-1438 (3098)
Invested
$1,594.55
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$211.22
Record
50%
1558-1564 (3122)
Both legs:
Invested
$235
Value
$295
PnL
+$60
Record
45%
349-428 (777)
Invested
$321.84
Value
$280.32
PnL
-$41.52
Record
2%
5-200 (205)
Invested
$283.1
Value
$155.35
PnL
-$45.86
Record
48%
959-1032 (1991)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.