Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Marina Bassols Ribera

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Marina Bassols Ribera (58%) · Marina Bassols Ribera at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Maria Lourdes Carle27¢Marina Bassols Ribera73¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marina Bassols Ribera

Consensus Traders

Marina Bassols Ribera 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$14.12

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 73.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarina Bassols Ribera at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marina Bassols Ribera

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maria Lourdes Carle27%

Marina Bassols Ribera74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marina Bassols Ribera7 traders

Total Value$658.46

Total Shares829

Combined PnL+$16.91

Maria Lourdes Carle5 traders

Total Value$24.99

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$2.8

Marina Bassols Ribera — 58%Maria Lourdes Carle — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Marina Bassols Ribera. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMarina Bassols Ribera 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMarina Bassols Ribera 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarina Bassols Ribera 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Marina Bassols Ribera 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 73¢	$553.26	$575.57	+$22.32	53% 1821-1628 (3449)
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 73¢	$325.8	$348.11	+$22.31
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 22¢	$227.46	$227.46	+$0
LI Limousin	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 71.1¢	$299.14	$312.37	+$13.23	30% 379-881 (1260)
TH thirdt1me	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 72.4¢	$248.34	$241.8	-$6.54	42% 116-157 (273)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 80.6¢	$176.41	$145.87	-$30.54	51% 1853-1805 (3658)
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 80.6¢	$100.38	$97.1	-$3.28
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 34.3¢	$76.03	$48.77	-$27.26
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 72.3¢	$122.92	$123.49	+$0.57	56% 3858-3022 (6880)
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 72.3¢	$86.67	$84.47	-$2.2
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 27.4¢	$36.25	$39.02	+$2.77
VeryLucky888<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 67¢	$41.95	$40.42	+$3.54	52% 464-433 (897)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 67¢	$27.6	$32.13	+$4.52	50% 107-108 (215)
BA babybells<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 72¢	$15.94	$17.27	+$1.33	24% 128-410 (538)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 23¢	$13.17	$12.6	-$0.57	31% 385-855 (1240)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 69¢	$10	$10.58	+$0.58	49% 47-48 (95)
TRCMCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 25¢	$5.06	$4.46	-$0.61	11% 54-433 (487)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 26¢	$5.06	$4.28	-$0.78	31% 210-477 (687)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.9	+$0.25	23% 144-492 (636)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 26¢	$3.21	$2.72	-$0.49	30% 380-877 (1257)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 30¢	$1.29	$0.94	-$0.34	40% 535-807 (1342)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$553.26

Value

$575.57

PnL

+$22.32

Record

53%

1821-1628 (3449)

Both legs:

Marina Bassols Ribera$325.873¢+$22.31

Maria Lourdes Carle$227.4622¢+$0

Limousin

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$299.14

Value

$312.37

PnL

+$13.23

Record

30%

379-881 (1260)

thirdt1me

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$248.34

Value

$241.8

PnL

-$6.54

Record

42%

116-157 (273)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$176.41

Value

$145.87

PnL

-$30.54

Record

51%

1853-1805 (3658)

Both legs:

Marina Bassols Ribera$100.3880.6¢-$3.28

Maria Lourdes Carle$76.0334.3¢-$27.26

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$122.92

Value

$123.49

PnL

+$0.57

Record

56%

3858-3022 (6880)

Both legs:

Marina Bassols Ribera$86.6772.3¢-$2.2

Maria Lourdes Carle$36.2527.4¢+$2.77

VeryLucky888<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$41.95

Value

$40.42

PnL

+$3.54

Record

52%

464-433 (897)

Eulhunter<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$27.6

Value

$32.13

PnL

+$4.52

Record

50%

107-108 (215)

babybells<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$15.94

Value

$17.27

PnL

+$1.33

Record

24%

128-410 (538)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$13.17

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.57

Record

31%

385-855 (1240)

glennyorkshire<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$10

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0.58

Record

49%

47-48 (95)

TRCMCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.46

PnL

-$0.61

Record

11%

54-433 (487)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$0.78

Record

31%

210-477 (687)

BillBenter2026<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.25

Record

23%

144-492 (636)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$3.21

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.49

Record

30%

380-877 (1257)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.94

PnL

-$0.34

Record

40%

535-807 (1342)

Research grade

NeutralMarina Bassols Ribera at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marina Bassols Ribera

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Marina Bassols Ribera. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMarina Bassols Ribera 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMarina Bassols Ribera 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMarina Bassols Ribera 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Marina Bassols Ribera 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marina Bassols Ribera wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.