Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maria Lourdes Carle, while the market favors Despina Papamichail (62%). 13 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cali: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Despina Papamichail

13 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Maria Lourdes Carle (59%) · Maria Lourdes Carle at 39¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 10

Maria Lourdes Carle39¢Despina Papamichail61¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Maria Lourdes Carle

Consensus Traders

Maria Lourdes Carle 59%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$26.7K

Combined PnL

$179.75

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 38.5¢

-16% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralMaria Lourdes Carle at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Lourdes Carle

13 of 22 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Despina Papamichail 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Maria Lourdes Carle39%

Despina Papamichail62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Despina Papamichail9 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares9,041

Combined PnL+$67.03

Maria Lourdes Carle13 traders

Total Value$12.1K

Total Shares18,383

Combined PnL+$112.72

Despina Papamichail — 41%Maria Lourdes Carle — 59%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Despina Papamichailavg 61.7¢	$4.9K	$4.8K	-$140.97	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 59.6¢	$4.6K	$4.0K	-$551.52	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 59.6¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$395.08
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 53.7¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$156.44
NO NotJumpCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 47.3¢	$3.6K	$3.9K	+$276.3	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$48.87	54% 906-787 (1693)
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 50¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$304.33
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 58¢	$800.59	$545.13	-$255.46
VE VenusianCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 54.3¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$258.39	53% 916-813 (1729)
MR MrDoucheCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 48.2¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$80.29	82% 1706-380 (2086)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 49.8¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$5.94	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 39.8¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$158.67	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 63.8¢	$1.8K	$950.32	-$874.88	52% 830-771 (1601)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 63.8¢	$1.7K	$689.8	-$971.48
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 46.2¢	$163.93	$260.52	+$96.59
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 47.4¢	$867.71	$730.9	+$22.39	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 47.4¢	$399.74	$442.45	+$42.71
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 49.5¢	$300.4	$288.44	-$20.33
LI LimousinARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 59.3¢	$776.99	$550.04	-$226.94	56% 942-736 (1678)
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 59.3¢	$669.8	$378.55	-$291.25
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 41.6¢	$107.19	$171.49	+$64.31
TH thestingsnake	Despina Papamichailavg 51.1¢	$664.18	$332.8	+$203.26	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 30.8¢	$321.24	$307.72	-$13.52	53% 3273-2894 (6167)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 51.5¢	$853.3	$292.48	-$45.3	52% 702-642 (1344)
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 54.4¢	$123.63	$151.14	-$23.47
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 51.5¢	$217.43	$141.34	-$21.83
OM omnibus-076daa	Despina Papamichailavg 60.2¢	$260.27	$252.88	-$7.39	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
tradecraftCTR	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 20.3¢	$124.95	$150.92	+$25.97	51% 6221-5962 (12183)
VeryLucky888	Despina Papamichailavg 29¢	$127.97	$135.22	+$7.25	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 57.4¢	$127.35	$115.04	-$12.31	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
└ Maria Lourdes Carle leg	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 51.1¢	$57.58	$82.85	+$25.26
└ Despina Papamichail leg	Despina Papamichailavg 57.4¢	$69.76	$32.19	-$37.57
LI Lilybaeum<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 29¢	$79.72	$85.22	+$5.5	61% 13937-8970 (22907)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 44¢	$44	$45.5	+$1.5	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 24.9¢	$24.66	$23.26	-$1.4	50% 4085-4060 (8145)
US User7429CTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 17.7¢	$8.51	$15.62	+$7.11	55% 8674-6972 (15646)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 34¢	$10.19	$12.99	+$2.8	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Maria Lourdes Carleavg 62.2¢	$9.71	$9.44	-$0.26	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Despina Papamichailavg 51¢	$8.2	$6.75	+$1.85	82% 6738-1455 (8193)

RN1

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$4,930.52

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$140.97

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$4,599.43

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$551.52

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$2,591.0659.6¢-$395.08

Maria Lourdes Carle$2,008.3753.7¢-$156.44

NotJumpCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$3,612.62

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$276.3

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$2,249.02

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$48.87

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

Both legs:

Maria Lourdes Carle$1,448.4350¢+$304.33

Despina Papamichail$800.5958¢-$255.46

VenusianCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$2,530.11

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$258.39

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

MrDoucheCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$2,219.29

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$80.29

Record

82%

1706-380 (2086)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$1,799.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$5.94

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

FlaznorpCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$1,242.33

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$158.67

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$1,825.2

Value

$950.32

PnL

-$874.88

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$1,661.2863.8¢-$971.48

Maria Lourdes Carle$163.9346.2¢+$96.59

38791873984189ARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$867.71

Value

$730.9

PnL

+$22.39

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$399.7447.4¢+$42.71

Maria Lourdes Carle$300.449.5¢-$20.33

LimousinARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$776.99

Value

$550.04

PnL

-$226.94

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Both legs:

Despina Papamichail$669.859.3¢-$291.25

Maria Lourdes Carle$107.1941.6¢+$64.31

thestingsnake

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$664.18

Value

$332.8

PnL

+$203.26

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$321.24

Value

$307.72

PnL

-$13.52

Record

53%

3273-2894 (6167)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$853.3

Value

$292.48

PnL

-$45.3

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

Both legs:

Maria Lourdes Carle$123.6354.4¢-$23.47

Despina Papamichail$217.4351.5¢-$21.83

omnibus-076daa

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$260.27

Value

$252.88

PnL

-$7.39

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

tradecraftCTR

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$124.95

Value

$150.92

PnL

+$25.97

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

VeryLucky888

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$127.97

Value

$135.22

PnL

+$7.25

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$127.35

Value

$115.04

PnL

-$12.31

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

Both legs:

Maria Lourdes Carle$57.5851.1¢+$25.26

Despina Papamichail$69.7657.4¢-$37.57

Lilybaeum<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$79.72

Value

$85.22

PnL

+$5.5

Record

61%

13937-8970 (22907)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$44

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$24.66

Value

$23.26

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

4085-4060 (8145)

User7429CTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$8.51

Value

$15.62

PnL

+$7.11

Record

55%

8674-6972 (15646)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$10.19

Value

$12.99

PnL

+$2.8

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

suntoriCTR<$100

Maria Lourdes Carle

Invested

$9.71

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$0.26

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Despina Papamichail

Invested

$8.2

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$1.85

Record

82%

6738-1455 (8193)

Research grade

NeutralMaria Lourdes Carle at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Maria Lourdes Carle

13 of 22 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Despina Papamichail 62%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maria Lourdes Carle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.