Sopo: Lucia Bronzetti vs Elizabeth Mandlik

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Elizabeth Mandlik (100%) · Elizabeth Mandlik at 51¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 18

Lucia Bronzetti50¢Elizabeth Mandlik50¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elizabeth Mandlik

Consensus Traders

Elizabeth Mandlik 100%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$59.54

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 50.5¢

+22% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

10 of 10 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Lucia Bronzetti50%

Elizabeth Mandlik51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elizabeth Mandlik10 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares10,590

Combined PnL+$59.54

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$18.04	53% 1811-1620 (3431)
65 6512395314597884	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41¢	$820	$830	+$10	50% 3292-3247 (6539)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 59.9¢	$244.84	$231.05	-$13.79	39% 513-787 (1300)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 59.9¢	$141.34	$128.67	-$12.66
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 46¢	$103.5	$102.38	-$1.13
RN1	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 38.9¢	$148.42	$173.49	+$25.07	57% 4029-3048 (7077)
TH thirdt1me	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.9¢	$107.68	$118.46	+$10.78	42% 111-156 (267)
EU Eulhunter	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 43.9¢	$118.95	$112.46	-$6.49	49% 102-106 (208)
VE Venusian	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41¢	$109.67	$111	+$1.34	31% 385-869 (1254)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Lucia Bronzettiavg 56.7¢	$110.59	$105.59	-$5	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 56.7¢	$62.15	$58.66	-$3.49
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 48¢	$48.44	$46.93	-$1.51
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.8¢	$88.48	$91.82	+$3.33	56% 3850-3020 (6870)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 45.8¢	$48.83	$53.86	+$5.03
└ Lucia Bronzetti leg	Lucia Bronzettiavg 51.7¢	$39.65	$37.95	-$1.7
BA babybells<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 41¢	$32.34	$32.73	+$0.39	23% 122-409 (531)
PA Pan9X<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 37¢	$12.95	$14.7	+$1.75	48% 667-712 (1379)
GL glennyorkshire<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 38¢	$10	$11.05	+$1.05	50% 47-47 (94)
TH thestingsnake<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 34.4¢	$33.71	$4.61	-$2.41	25% 124-374 (498)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$3,009.75

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$18.04

Record

53%

1811-1620 (3431)

6512395314597884

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$820

Value

$830

PnL

+$10

Record

50%

3292-3247 (6539)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$244.84

Value

$231.05

PnL

-$13.79

Record

39%

513-787 (1300)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$141.3459.9¢-$12.66

Elizabeth Mandlik$103.546¢-$1.13

RN1

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$148.42

Value

$173.49

PnL

+$25.07

Record

57%

4029-3048 (7077)

thirdt1me

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$107.68

Value

$118.46

PnL

+$10.78

Record

42%

111-156 (267)

Eulhunter

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$118.95

Value

$112.46

PnL

-$6.49

Record

49%

102-106 (208)

Venusian

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$109.67

Value

$111

PnL

+$1.34

Record

31%

385-869 (1254)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Lucia Bronzetti

Invested

$110.59

Value

$105.59

PnL

-$5

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

Both legs:

Lucia Bronzetti$62.1556.7¢-$3.49

Elizabeth Mandlik$48.4448¢-$1.51

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$88.48

Value

$91.82

PnL

+$3.33

Record

56%

3850-3020 (6870)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$48.8345.8¢+$5.03

Lucia Bronzetti$39.6551.7¢-$1.7

babybells<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$32.34

Value

$32.73

PnL

+$0.39

Record

23%

122-409 (531)

Pan9X<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$12.95

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$1.75

Record

48%

667-712 (1379)

glennyorkshire<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$10

Value

$11.05

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

47-47 (94)

thestingsnake<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$33.71

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$2.41

Record

25%

124-374 (498)

Research grade

NeutralElizabeth Mandlik at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Elizabeth Mandlik

10 of 10 top traders (100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elizabeth Mandlik wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.