Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Berta Bonardi, while the market favors Marjorie Souza (63%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Curitiba: Berta Bonardi vs Marjorie Souza
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Berta Bonardi (80%) · Berta Bonardi at 38¢ · $349 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Berta Bonardi
5
Berta Bonardi 80%
$349.31
-$44.22
32.1¢ → 37.5¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralBerta Bonardi at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Marjorie Souza 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotradecopyCTR | Berta Bonardiavg 31.9¢ | $198.85 | $161.93 | -$36.92 | 49% 3887-4075 (7962) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Berta Bonardiavg 33¢ | $115.62 | $117.33 | +$1.71 | 59% 44229-30605 (74834) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Marjorie Souzaavg 68¢ | $27.2 | $26.6 | -$0.8 | 56% 6834-5474 (12308) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Berta Bonardiavg 31.2¢ | $28.49 | $23.76 | -$4.73 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Berta Bonardiavg 30.6¢ | $23.12 | $19.64 | -$3.49 | 58% 27866-20500 (48366) |
Invested
$198.85
Value
$161.93
PnL
-$36.92
Record
49%
3887-4075 (7962)
Invested
$115.62
Value
$117.33
PnL
+$1.71
Record
59%
44229-30605 (74834)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$27.2
Value
$26.6
PnL
-$0.8
Record
56%
6834-5474 (12308)
Invested
$28.49
Value
$23.76
PnL
-$4.73
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
Invested
$23.12
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$3.49
Record
58%
27866-20500 (48366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.